Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Sports game?

Sports + Choices Matter

Of 120 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 150 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $600. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 150 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 150 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 120
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $4.8k → $1.7k → $2.9k → $84k → $3.0k → $4.2k (still earning) → $718 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 120
Bottom 30% $597 (exactly $597)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,868)
Top 5% $194k (exactly $193,703)
Developers, 2 yr 120
Released games 267
Announced 150
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 7,177 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $190k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 150 games are announced against 87 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choose Your Own AdventureFair38 devs · median $2.4k · 41 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

F1® Manager 2024 2024 · $5.8M Punch Club 2016 · $3.6M Tape to Tape 2023 · EA · $2.1M Wrestling Empire 2021 · $1.8M Teamfight Manager 2021 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
F1® Manager 2024 older $34.99 5,554 83% 167k $5.8M (exactly $5,830,034) Frontier Developments
Punch Club older $9.99 12,098 81% 363k $3.6M (exactly $3,625,771) Lazy Bear Games
Tape to Tape · EA older $19.99 3,464 92% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,077,361) Excellent Rectangle
Wrestling Empire older $19.99 3,036 94% 91k $1.8M (exactly $1,820,689) MDickie
Teamfight Manager older $9.99 5,663 86% 170k $1.7M (exactly $1,697,201) Team Samoyed
Teamfight Manager 2 · EA $19.99 2,251 60% 68k $1.3M (exactly $1,349,925) Team Samoyed
Out of the Park Baseball 26 $49.99 819 82% 25k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,254) Out of the Park Developments
Little Busters! English Edition older $34.99 1,097 97% 33k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,521) VisualArts/Key
Aokana - Four Rhythms Across the Blue - EXTRA2 older $24.99 1,400 99% 42k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,580) sprite, NekoNyan Ltd.
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS $59.99 330 50% 9.9k $594k (exactly $593,901) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Whisker Squadron: Survivor $19.99 485 77% 15k $291k (exactly $290,854) Flippfly LLC
Pure Badminton $19.99 323 81% 9.7k $194k (exactly $193,703) DS SOFT
GT Manager $24.99 236 71% 7.1k $177k (exactly $176,929) THE TINY DIGITAL FACTORY, IMV STUDIO
Westview Academy - Season 1 $12.99 419 73% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) TakoYuh
Lake of Creatures $12.49 354 92% 11k $133k (exactly $132,644) ANTENNA GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.