Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter City Builder?

City Builder + Choices Matter

Of 66 developers who shipped a Choices Matter City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 148 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.3M, ×5352 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 148 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 14.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 70% on the market, 148 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 66
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $28k → $358 → $45k → $17k → $8.6k → $13k (still earning) → $779 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 66
Bottom 30% $1.0k (exactly $1,025)
Median $9.0k (exactly $8,991)
Top 25% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Top 5% $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869)
Developers, 2 yr 66
Released games 169
Announced 148
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder, Choices Matter; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 71,109 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.1k, median $9.0k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $3.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.1k. 5 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 148 games are announced against 37 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Frostpunk 2018 · $103M Anno 1800 2019 · $54M Frostpunk 2 2024 · $28M Foundation 2025 · $24M Tropico 6 2019 · $24M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Frostpunk 2 $44.99 20,872 74% 626k $28M (exactly $28,170,938) 11 bit studios
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Dawn of Man older $24.99 17,094 86% 513k $13M (exactly $12,815,372) Madruga Works
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome
Nordhold $19.99 2,875 87% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,724,137) StunForge
MEMORIAPOLIS $32.00 1,752 75% 53k $1.7M (exactly $1,681,920) 5PM Studio
After Inc: Revival $17.99 1,480 77% 44k $799k (exactly $798,756) Ndemic Creations
DarkSwitch $34.99 714 77% 21k $749k (exactly $749,486) Cyber Temple
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.