Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Building Choices Matter game?

Building + Choices Matter

Of 126 developers who shipped a Building Choices Matter game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 326 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×6.2 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $3.2M, ×5152 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 326 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 326 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 126
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $26k → $6.9k → $6.1k → $1.6k → $14k → $2.5k → $7.9k (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 126
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $3.9k (exactly $3,897)
Top 25% $73k (exactly $72,860)
Top 5% $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705)
Developers, 2 yr 126
Released games 354
Announced 326
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building, Choices Matter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 102,670 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $3.9k, 1 in 4 over $72k, 1 in 20 over $3.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 65 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 326 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Frostpunk older $29.99 114,376 92% 3.4M $103M (exactly $102,904,087) 11 bit studios
Anno 1800 older $59.99 29,854 81% 896k $54M (exactly $53,728,244) Ubisoft Mainz
Europa Universalis V $59.99 25,353 66% 761k $46M (exactly $45,627,794) Paradox Tinto
Foundation $34.99 23,037 86% 691k $24M (exactly $24,181,939) Polymorph Games
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Anno 117: Pax Romana $59.99 12,150 69% 365k $22M (exactly $21,866,355) Ubisoft Mainz
Kingdoms and Castles older $19.99 30,311 93% 909k $18M (exactly $18,177,507) Lion Shield, LLC
IXION older $34.99 15,281 77% 458k $16M (exactly $16,040,466) Bulwark Studios
Gas Station Simulator older $19.99 23,839 88% 715k $14M (exactly $14,296,248) DRAGO entertainment
Stranded: Alien Dawn older $34.99 9,715 84% 291k $10M (exactly $10,197,836) Haemimont Games
Quarantine Zone: The Last Check $19.99 11,827 81% 355k $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) Brigada Games
ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs $19.99 9,209 95% 276k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) Mandragora
The Crust $31.99 3,502 76% 105k $3.4M (exactly $3,360,869) VEOM Studio
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Hollywood Animal · EA $19.99 3,845 73% 115k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,846) Weappy Wholesome

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.