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Should I ship a Choices Matter Visual Novel?
Choices Matter + Visual Novel
Of 1,351 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Visual Novel in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,035 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×9.8 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $340k, ×720 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 2,035 games are announced against 820 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.7k (exactly $4,676) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $32,473) |
| Top 5% | $342k (exactly $341,772) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,351 |
| Released games | 4,355 |
| Announced | 2,035 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Visual Novel
- effort 2 / 10 · high · script, choices and static art
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Visual Novel; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Multiple Endings, Dating Sim
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 95% positive over 282,005 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 793 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,035 games are announced against 820 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Dispatch 2025 · $157M 
Disco Elysium - The Final Cut 2019 · $142M 
The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series 2020 · $55M 
Senren＊Banka 2020 · $35M 
Magical Girl Witch Trials 2025 · $27M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dispatch | $29.99 | 174,624 97% | 5.2M | $157M (exactly $157,109,213) | AdHoc Studio | |
| | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
| | The Walking Dead: The Telltale Definitive Series | older | $49.99 | 36,594 96% | 1.1M | $55M (exactly $54,880,022) | Skybound Games |
| | Senren＊Banka | older | $34.99 | 33,721 98% | 1.0M | $35M (exactly $35,396,934) | YUZUSOFT |
| | Magical Girl Witch Trials | $29.99 | 29,869 96% | 896k | $27M (exactly $26,873,139) | Acacia, Re,AER | |
 | The Walking Dead | older | $14.99 | 53,650 97% | 1.6M | $24M (exactly $24,126,405) | Telltale Games |
 | STEINS;GATE | older | $29.99 | 25,289 97% | 759k | $23M (exactly $22,752,513) | MAGES. Inc. |
 | Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut | older | $17.99 | 31,885 96% | 957k | $17M (exactly $17,208,334) | Black Tabby Games |
 | VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action | older | $14.99 | 33,838 97% | 1.0M | $15M (exactly $15,216,949) | Sukeban Games |
 | Volcano Princess | older | $10.99 | 45,019 97% | 1.4M | $15M (exactly $14,842,764) | 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher |
 | Tiny Bunny | $10.99 | 27,200 83% | 816k | $9.0M (exactly $8,967,840) | Saikono, Sokar | |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
 | UNBEATABLE | $27.99 | 6,552 92% | 197k | $5.5M (exactly $5,501,714) | D-CELL GAMES | |
 | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Homicipher | $13.99 | 7,821 96% | 235k | $3.3M (exactly $3,282,474) | 八名木Games | |
 | Urban Myth Dissolution Center | $17.99 | 5,930 88% | 178k | $3.2M (exactly $3,200,421) | Hakababunko |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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