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Should I ship a Choices Matter JRPG?
JRPG + Choices Matter
Of 151 developers who shipped a Choices Matter JRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 314 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.7k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×567 the market median. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 314 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.2k (exactly $2,158) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.7k (exactly $8,691) |
| Top 25% | $38k (exactly $38,235) |
| Top 5% | $356k (exactly $355,861) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 151 |
| Released games | 439 |
| Announced | 314 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- JRPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- JRPG, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 19,130 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.2k. 8 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 314 games are announced against 93 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
JRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Mystery DungeonStrong odds
- + NinjaFair
- + RomanceFair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + ManagementFair
- + Souls-likeFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + LootFair
- + RoguelikeFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
Comparable games
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ 2019 · $25M 
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II 2023 · $24M 
Volcano Princess 2023 · $15M 
Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance 2024 · $14M 
LISA: The Painful 2014 · $7.9M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER II | older | $59.99 | 13,407 93% | 402k | $24M (exactly $24,128,578) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Volcano Princess | older | $10.99 | 45,019 97% | 1.4M | $15M (exactly $14,842,764) | 养蛋人 Egg Hatcher |
| | Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance | older | $59.99 | 7,858 91% | 236k | $14M (exactly $14,142,043) | ATLUS |
| | LISA: The Painful | older | $19.99 | 13,129 95% | 394k | $7.9M (exactly $7,873,461) | Dingaling Productions |
 | Tactics Ogre: Reborn | older | $49.99 | 4,049 72% | 121k | $6.1M (exactly $6,072,285) | Square Enix |
 | Shin Megami Tensei III Nocturne HD Remaster | older | $49.99 | 3,989 87% | 120k | $6.0M (exactly $5,982,303) | ATLUS |
 | TRIANGLE STRATEGY | older | $59.99 | 3,239 78% | 97k | $5.8M (exactly $5,829,228) | Square Enix, ARTDINK |
 | Haven | older | $24.99 | 5,294 88% | 159k | $4.0M (exactly $3,968,912) | The Game Bakers |
 | Magical Princess | $14.99 | 7,636 96% | 229k | $3.4M (exactly $3,433,909) | Neotro Inc., MAGI Inc. | |
 | Everhood 2 | $19.99 | 2,207 74% | 66k | $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) | Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca | |
 | The Nameless: Slay Dragon | $17.99 | 2,050 91% | 62k | $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) | The Nameless Epic | |
 | LumenTale: Memories of Trey | $24.99 | 1,130 70% | 34k | $847k (exactly $847,161) | Beehive Studios | |
 | Those Who Rule | $17.99 | 1,116 89% | 33k | $602k (exactly $602,305) | Eldin Turulja | |
 | CAPTAIN TSUBASA 2: WORLD FIGHTERS | $59.99 | 330 50% | 9.9k | $594k (exactly $593,901) | TAMSOFT CORPORATION | |
 | The Use of Life | $19.99 | 764 90% | 23k | $458k (exactly $458,171) | だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games | |
 | The NOexistenceN of Morphean Paradox : The Forest of Silver Shallots | · EA | $6.99 | 1,697 72% | 51k | $356k (exactly $355,861) | 0x0Real Studio |
 | Trainee Death Simulator | $5.99 | 1,746 92% | 52k | $314k (exactly $313,756) | Bone Nail | |
 | 緋月仙行錄 | $19.99 | 454 57% | 14k | $272k (exactly $272,264) | 月光草 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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