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Should I ship a Choices Matter Sailing game?
Sailing + Choices Matter
Only 10 developers shipped a Choices Matter Sailing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Waters, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×5.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×1368 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 31 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $14,685) |
| Top 5% | $859k (exactly $859,214) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 31 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Sailing
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Sailing, Choices Matter
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 73% positive over 1,693 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 31 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sailing with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + UnderwaterFair
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Immersive SimPoor odds
- + BuildingPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Procedural GenerationPoor odds
- + CraftingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
- + Action RPGPoor odds
- + Resource ManagementPoor odds
- + SurvivalPoor odds
Comparable games
Caribbean Legend 2024 · $3.4M 
Sea Dogs: To Each His Own 2012 · $867k 
Rogue Waters 2024 · $859k 
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! 2015 · $712k 
Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates 2026 · $383k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Caribbean Legend | older | $39.99 | 2,860 74% | 86k | $3.4M (exactly $3,431,142) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Sea Dogs: To Each His Own | older | $14.99 | 1,927 72% | 58k | $867k (exactly $866,572) | BlackMark Studio |
| | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
| | Blood and Gold: Caribbean! | older | $19.99 | 1,188 59% | 36k | $712k (exactly $712,444) | Snowbird Games |
| | Caribbean Legend: Age of Pirates | $19.99 | 638 70% | 19k | $383k (exactly $382,609) | ReCon Team | |
 | The Caribbean Sail | older | $14.99 | 503 93% | 15k | $226k (exactly $226,199) | Victorian Clambake |
 | Tortuga - A Pirate's Tale | older | $24.99 | 132 51% | 4.0k | $99k (exactly $98,960) | Gaming Minds Studios |
 | Islands of the Caliph | older | $9.99 | 272 88% | 8.2k | $82k (exactly $81,518) | Schmidt Workshops |
 | Burly Men at Sea | older | $9.99 | 198 70% | 5.9k | $59k (exactly $59,341) | Brain&Brain |
 | Sea Dogs: City of Abandoned Ships | older | $7.99 | 245 76% | 7.4k | $59k (exactly $58,726) | Akella |
 | Void Sails | $9.99 | 49 69% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $14,685) | Ticking Clock Games | |
 | Herald: The Interactive Period Drama – Complete Edition | $19.99 | 23 78% | 690 | $14k (exactly $13,793) | Wispfire | |
 | Coastal Summit Sports: College Athletics 27 | $9.99 | 12 25% | 360 | $3.6k (exactly $3,596) | Coastal Summit Sports | |
 | Ship of the line | · EA | $7.99 | 9 88% | 270 | $2.2k (exactly $2,157) | YDS |
 | Tradewake | $7.99 | 5 0% | 150 | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) | Honeymelon Games | |
 | Maritime Simulator | · EA | $12.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $390 (exactly $390) | Vector Studios |
 | Caribbean Prospector | · EA | $4.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $150 (exactly $150) | Denis Salanta |
 | Give Me More Missile! | · EA | $3.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Void Cosmos |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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