Do I ship it?

Games › Class-Based › Class-Based + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Class-Based game?

Class-Based + Choices Matter

Of 64 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Class-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 158 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×739 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 158 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 158 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Class-Based + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 64
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $54k → $37k → $24k → $65k → $4.5k → $300 (still earning) → $359 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Class-Based + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 64
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,881)
Top 25% $82k (exactly $81,845)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385)
Developers, 2 yr 64
Released games 133
Announced 158
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Class-Based
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Class-Based, Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 15,014 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 28 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 158 games are announced against 38 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Class-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair19 devs · median $6.6k · 22 announced
  2. + Bullet HeavenFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + SupernaturalLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  4. + 2D PlatformerLong shot26 devs · median $539 · 30 announced
  5. + FPSPoor odds22 devs · median $70k · 70 announced
  6. + MMORPGPoor odds7 devs · median $61k · 57 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds18 devs · median $33k · 44 announced
  8. + WarPoor odds17 devs · median $32k · 59 announced
  9. + Souls-likePoor odds16 devs · median $18k · 29 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds17 devs · median $13k · 42 announced
  11. + Third-Person ShooterPoor odds11 devs · median $13k · 53 announced
  12. + WargamePoor odds14 devs · median $9.4k · 28 announced

All 111 pairs on the Class-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B Solasta: Crown of the Magister 2021 · $18M Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew 2023 · $6.2M Solasta II 2026 · EA · $3.5M Sunderfolk 2025 · $2.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
Solasta: Crown of the Magister older $29.99 19,680 87% 590k $18M (exactly $17,706,096) Tactical Adventures
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Tower Dominion $17.49 5,117 85% 154k $2.7M (exactly $2,684,890) Parallel 45 Games
Vagante older $14.99 4,118 90% 124k $1.9M (exactly $1,851,865) Nuke Nine
SKALD: Against the Black Priory older $14.99 3,325 93% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,495,252) High North Studios AS
The Nameless: Slay Dragon $17.99 2,050 91% 62k $1.1M (exactly $1,106,385) The Nameless Epic
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness older $29.99 924 74% 28k $831k (exactly $831,323) GrapeOcean Technologies
New Arc Line · EA $24.99 687 68% 21k $515k (exactly $515,044) Dreamate
The Use of Life $19.99 764 90% 23k $458k (exactly $458,171) だらねこげーむず/Daraneko Games
Shadowveil: Legend of The Five Rings $24.99 469 74% 14k $352k (exactly $351,609) Palindrome Interactive
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio
Expeditions: Samurai · EA $29.99 267 59% 8.0k $240k (exactly $240,220) Campfire Cabal
Cube Chaos $11.99 621 95% 19k $223k (exactly $223,374) Wunarg

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.