Do I ship it?

GamesSouls-likeSouls-like + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Souls-like?

Souls-like + Choices Matter

Of 47 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Souls-like in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 128 more are announced, ×5.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $12k, ×7.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $850k, ×570 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 128 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 128 announced, ×5.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Souls-like + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 47
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.7k → $11k → $7.2k → $8.2k → $33k → $8.5k → $839 (still earning) → $124k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Souls-like + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 47
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $12k (exactly $11,870)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $92,008)
Top 5% $854k (exactly $854,145)
Developers, 2 yr 47
Released games 143
Announced 128
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Souls-like
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Souls-like, Choices Matter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Action RPG, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 36,980 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $12k, 1 in 4 over $92k, 1 in 20 over $850k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 128 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Souls-like with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimStrong odds17 devs · median $34k · 8 announced
  2. + Visual NovelFair25 devs · median $27k · 17 announced
  3. + Artificial IntelligenceFair13 devs · median $22k · 17 announced
  4. + JRPGFair31 devs · median $8.6k · 35 announced
  5. + IncrementalFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  6. + PsychologicalFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  7. + Walking SimulatorFair17 devs · median $1.3k · 7 announced
  8. + Precision PlatformerLong shot49 devs · median $776 · 46 announced
  9. + Score AttackLong shot18 devs · median $599 · 21 announced
  10. + WarPoor odds8 devs · median $451k · 22 announced
  11. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds12 devs · median $88k · 21 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds10 devs · median $35k · 16 announced

All 122 pairs on the Souls-like page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Lies of P older $59.99 58,411 91% 1.8M $105M (exactly $105,122,277) NEOWIZ
Vampyr older $39.99 20,081 77% 602k $24M (exactly $24,091,176) DONTNOD Entertainment
GreedFall older $34.99 18,460 75% 554k $19M (exactly $19,377,462) Spiders
Avowed $49.99 12,653 76% 380k $19M (exactly $18,975,704) Obsidian Entertainment
Xuan-Yuan Sword VII older $34.99 8,490 62% 255k $8.9M (exactly $8,911,953) SOFTSTAR, DOMO Studio
Drova - Forsaken Kin $24.99 9,455 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,088,414) Just2D
YOU and ME and HER: A Love Story older $29.99 6,033 95% 181k $5.4M (exactly $5,427,890) Nitroplus
Afterimage older $24.99 6,929 79% 208k $5.2M (exactly $5,194,671) Aurogon Shanghai
Carnal Instinct · EA older $29.99 5,407 82% 162k $4.9M (exactly $4,864,678) Team Carnal Instinct
Anomaly Agent older $11.99 9,463 94% 284k $3.4M (exactly $3,403,841) Phew Phew Games
Dwarven Realms $9.99 2,850 81% 86k $854k (exactly $854,145) Crater Studios
YAR: Forgotten Throne $19.99 1,283 89% 38k $769k (exactly $769,415) Honor Games
The Dark Queen of Mortholme $4.99 4,075 83% 122k $610k (exactly $610,028) Mosu
Fever Meme $4.20 4,358 91% 131k $549k (exactly $549,108) Aimbok
The Married Woman Nextdoor - Creampie SEX Beside Her Husband $9.99 933 86% 28k $280k (exactly $279,620) AibanWork
FOUNTAINS $14.99 423 84% 13k $190k (exactly $190,223) John Pywell
Exposed Livestream $9.99 520 81% 16k $156k (exactly $155,844) Kumada Gaon
ZENONIA 1 $9.99 430 80% 13k $129k (exactly $128,871) Com2us Holdings, CFK Co., Ltd.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.