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Should I ship a Choices Matter Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Choices Matter
Of 81 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 140 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $9.0k, ×14 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3233 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 140 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $9.0k (exactly $8,996) |
| Top 25% | $129k (exactly $128,614) |
| Top 5% | $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 81 |
| Released games | 258 |
| Announced | 140 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Choices Matter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Difficult
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 42,141 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 33 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 140 games are announced against 50 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
Balatro 2024 · $72M 
Path Of Wuxia 2022 · $30M 
OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ 2019 · $25M 
OCTOPATH TRAVELER II 2023 · $24M 
Wasteland 3 2020 · $21M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Balatro | older | $14.99 | 160,715 97% | 4.8M | $72M (exactly $72,273,536) | LocalThunk |
| | Path Of Wuxia | older | $34.99 | 28,286 78% | 849k | $30M (exactly $29,691,814) | 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司 |
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER™ | older | $59.99 | 13,923 85% | 418k | $25M (exactly $25,057,223) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | OCTOPATH TRAVELER II | older | $59.99 | 13,407 93% | 402k | $24M (exactly $24,128,578) | Square Enix, ACQUIRE Corp. |
| | Wasteland 3 | older | $39.99 | 17,263 84% | 518k | $21M (exactly $20,710,421) | inXile Entertainment |
 | Pathfinder: Kingmaker — Enhanced Plus Edition | older | $19.99 | 28,146 77% | 844k | $17M (exactly $16,879,156) | Owlcat Games |
 | Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance | older | $59.99 | 7,858 91% | 236k | $14M (exactly $14,142,043) | ATLUS |
 | Wildermyth | older | $24.99 | 16,316 94% | 489k | $12M (exactly $12,232,105) | Worldwalker Games LLC |
 | Caves of Qud | $29.99 | 11,892 94% | 357k | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) | Freehold Games | |
 | The Banner Saga | older | $24.99 | 13,470 88% | 404k | $10M (exactly $10,098,459) | Stoic |
 | Esoteric Ebb | $24.99 | 8,719 95% | 262k | $6.5M (exactly $6,536,634) | Christoffer Bodegård | |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II | $39.99 | 2,088 53% | 63k | $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) | Bulwark Studios | |
 | Sol Cesto | $13.99 | 4,838 91% | 145k | $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) | Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale) | |
 | How Many Dudes? | $14.99 | 2,948 89% | 88k | $1.3M (exactly $1,325,716) | Butterscotch Shenanigans | |
 | Rogue Waters | $29.99 | 955 75% | 29k | $859k (exactly $859,214) | Ice Code Games | |
 | Gambonanza | $14.99 | 1,604 74% | 48k | $721k (exactly $721,319) | Blukulélé | |
 | Urban Strife | $34.99 | 653 69% | 20k | $685k (exactly $685,454) | White Pond Games | |
 | Lootbound | $14.99 | 1,248 77% | 37k | $561k (exactly $561,226) | ArtDock |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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