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Should I ship a Choices Matter Immersive Sim?
Immersive Sim + Choices Matter
Of 525 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Immersive Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 897 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.9k, ×2.6 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×333 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 897 games are announced against 328 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.9k (exactly $3,892) |
| Top 25% | $52k (exactly $52,448) |
| Top 5% | $498k (exactly $498,101) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 525 |
| Released games | 1,218 |
| Announced | 897 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Immersive Sim
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Immersive Sim, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Multiple Endings, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 216,488 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 6 in 10 of the 278 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 897 games are announced against 328 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Immersive Sim with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Trading Card GameStrong odds
- + MinigamesStrong odds
- + WesternStrong odds
- + BoxingStrong odds
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair
- + Dating SimFair
- + RomanceFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Split ScreenFair
Comparable games
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl 2024 · $192M 
Europa Universalis V 2025 · $46M 
Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon 2025 · $45M 
Police Simulator: Patrol Officers 2022 · $23M 
Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey 2020 · $12M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
| | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
| | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
| | Police Simulator: Patrol Officers | older | $39.99 | 18,880 75% | 566k | $23M (exactly $22,650,336) | Aesir Interactive |
| | Ancestors: The Humankind Odyssey | older | $39.99 | 9,794 81% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,749,862) | Panache Digital Games |
 | X-Plane 12 | older | $59.99 | 6,318 86% | 190k | $11M (exactly $11,370,505) | Laminar Research |
 | Love Is All Around | older | $9.99 | 36,203 93% | 1.1M | $11M (exactly $10,850,039) | intiny |
 | Sins of a Solar Empire II | older | $49.99 | 7,147 83% | 214k | $11M (exactly $10,718,356) | Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock En… (Ironclad Games Corporation, Stardock Entertainment) |
 | House Party | older | $24.99 | 13,968 85% | 419k | $10M (exactly $10,471,810) | Eek! Games, LLC |
 | Pathologic 2 | older | $34.99 | 9,554 92% | 287k | $10M (exactly $10,028,834) | Ice-Pick Lodge |
 | Quarantine Zone: The Last Check | $19.99 | 11,827 81% | 355k | $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) | Brigada Games | |
 | Atomfall | $49.99 | 4,526 76% | 136k | $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) | Rebellion | |
 | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio | |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R.: Shadow of Chornobyl - Enhanced Edition | $19.99 | 6,619 65% | 199k | $4.0M (exactly $3,969,414) | GSC Game World | |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof | $19.99 | 5,881 91% | 176k | $3.5M (exactly $3,526,836) | Storytaco | |
 | Road to Empress I | $8.49 | 11,829 86% | 355k | $3.0M (exactly $3,012,846) | New One Studio | |
 | Pathologic 3 | $34.99 | 2,528 80% | 76k | $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) | Ice-Pick Lodge |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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