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Should I ship a Choices Matter Simulation game?
Simulation + Choices Matter
Of 1,391 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,371 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $450k, ×719 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 2,371 games are announced against 908 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $600 (exactly $600) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,726) |
| Top 25% | $27k (exactly $26,673) |
| Top 5% | $452k (exactly $451,648) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,391 |
| Released games | 3,637 |
| Announced | 2,371 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Choices Matter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Visual Novel, Multiple Endings, Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 171,059 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 655 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,371 games are announced against 908 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Frostpunk 2018 · $103M 
Insurgency: Sandstorm 2018 · $94M 
Anno 1800 2019 · $54M 
This War of Mine 2014 · $49M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Frostpunk | older | $29.99 | 114,376 92% | 3.4M | $103M (exactly $102,904,087) | 11 bit studios |
| | Insurgency: Sandstorm | older | $29.99 | 104,168 85% | 3.1M | $94M (exactly $93,719,950) | New World Interactive |
| | Anno 1800 | older | $59.99 | 29,854 81% | 896k | $54M (exactly $53,728,244) | Ubisoft Mainz |
| | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Path Of Wuxia | older | $34.99 | 28,286 78% | 849k | $30M (exactly $29,691,814) | 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司 |
 | Frostpunk 2 | $44.99 | 20,872 74% | 626k | $28M (exactly $28,170,938) | 11 bit studios | |
 | Age of Wonders 4 | older | $49.99 | 16,899 82% | 507k | $25M (exactly $25,343,430) | Triumph Studios |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Anno 117: Pax Romana | $59.99 | 12,150 69% | 365k | $22M (exactly $21,866,355) | Ubisoft Mainz | |
 | Sultan's Game | $24.99 | 25,061 93% | 752k | $19M (exactly $18,788,232) | Double Cross | |
 | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
 | Quarantine Zone: The Last Check | $19.99 | 11,827 81% | 355k | $7.1M (exactly $7,092,652) | Brigada Games | |
 | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
 | ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs | $19.99 | 9,209 95% | 276k | $5.5M (exactly $5,522,637) | Mandragora | |
 | Road to Empress Ⅱ | $18.00 | 7,773 80% | 233k | $4.2M (exactly $4,197,420) | New One Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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