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Should I ship a Choices Matter Hex Grid game?
Choices Matter + Hex Grid
Only 17 developers shipped a Choices Matter Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Solasta II, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 60 more are announced, ×5.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.5k, ×7.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×7403 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 60 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $899 (exactly $899) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) |
| Top 25% | $25k (exactly $25,187) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 17 |
| Released games | 55 |
| Announced | 60 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $13.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Hex Grid
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Hex Grid; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical RPG, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $13.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $13.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 4,539 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 60 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
King's Bounty II 2021 · $5.4M 
Solasta II 2026 · EA · $3.5M 
Expeditions: Viking 2017 · $3.0M 
Thea: The Awakening 2015 · $2.0M 
Curious Expedition 2016 · $1.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | King's Bounty II | older | $39.99 | 4,473 61% | 134k | $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) | Fulqrum Games |
| | Solasta II | · EA | $39.99 | 2,931 75% | 88k | $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) | Tactical Adventures |
| | Expeditions: Viking | older | $29.99 | 3,293 82% | 99k | $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) | Logic Artists |
| | Thea: The Awakening | older | $19.99 | 3,318 87% | 100k | $2.0M (exactly $1,989,805) | MuHa Games |
| | Curious Expedition | older | $14.99 | 3,951 91% | 119k | $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) | Maschinen-Mensch |
 | Expeditions: Conquistador | older | $19.99 | 1,228 77% | 37k | $736k (exactly $736,432) | Logic Artists |
 | Those Who Rule | $17.99 | 1,116 89% | 33k | $602k (exactly $602,305) | Eldin Turulja | |
 | Disciples: Domination | $44.99 | 218 65% | 6.5k | $294k (exactly $294,235) | Artefacts Studio | |
 | Blackguards 2 | older | $9.99 | 953 64% | 29k | $286k (exactly $285,614) | Daedalic Entertainment |
 | Tortuga - A Pirate's Tale | older | $24.99 | 132 51% | 4.0k | $99k (exactly $98,960) | Gaming Minds Studios |
 | Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin | $14.99 | 162 69% | 4.9k | $73k (exactly $72,851) | Singular Sunshine Studios | |
 | Empire Builder | $19.99 | 42 95% | 1.3k | $25k (exactly $25,187) | Zombie Possum Games Inc | |
 | Fortune Fragments | $15.99 | 27 96% | 810 | $13k (exactly $12,952) | Runoi Games | |
 | Defense&Making | · EA | $13.99 | 13 76% | 390 | $5.5k (exactly $5,456) | 3DAYS |
 | Isles & Tiles | $12.99 | 10 70% | 300 | $3.9k (exactly $3,897) | Birdworks | |
 | Starbug Troopers : The 4 horseflies of the apocalypse | $8.99 | 13 84% | 390 | $3.5k (exactly $3,506) | Big Loot Games | |
 | Northern Ireland '74 | · EA | $11.99 | 7 71% | 210 | $2.5k (exactly $2,518) | Every Single Soldier |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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