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Should I ship a Choices Matter Open World game?
Open World + Choices Matter
Of 214 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Open World game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 651 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 8 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.2k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 8 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $630; 1 in 20 cleared $6.7M, ×4531 the market median. Revenue is up 105% on the market; 651 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $629 (exactly $629) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.2k (exactly $3,236) |
| Top 25% | $67k (exactly $66,567) |
| Top 5% | $6.8M (exactly $6,787,642) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 214 |
| Released games | 703 |
| Announced | 651 |
| Effort | 8 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 105% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Open World
- effort 8 / 10 · low · effort 8 sits in the low band
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 8 / 10 · online systems, open world
- Systems
- Open World, Choices Matter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $34.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $34.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 379,242 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $630. 7 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 651 games are announced against 146 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Open World with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + WuxiaFair
- + 4 Player LocalFair
- + VampiresFair
- + TrainsFair
- + FMVFair
- + GothicFair
- + MarsFair
- + TanksFair
- + FaithLong shot
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Co-op CampaignPoor odds
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Hogwarts Legacy 2023 · $495M 
Assassin's Creed® Odyssey 2018 · $310M 
Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition 2022 · $297M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Hogwarts Legacy | older | $59.99 | 274,801 89% | 8.2M | $495M (exactly $494,559,360) | Avalanche Software |
| | Assassin's Creed® Odyssey | older | $59.99 | 172,149 89% | 5.2M | $310M (exactly $309,816,555) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai) |
| | Dying Light 2 Stay Human: Reloaded Edition | older | $59.99 | 164,914 79% | 4.9M | $297M (exactly $296,795,726) | Techland |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
 | S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl | $59.99 | 106,592 81% | 3.2M | $192M (exactly $191,833,622) | GSC Game World | |
 | Disco Elysium - The Final Cut | older | $39.99 | 118,124 92% | 3.5M | $142M (exactly $141,713,363) | ZA/UM |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
 | Insurgency: Sandstorm | older | $29.99 | 104,168 85% | 3.1M | $94M (exactly $93,719,950) | New World Interactive |
 | Marvel's Guardians of the Galaxy | older | $59.99 | 35,397 93% | 1.1M | $64M (exactly $63,703,981) | Eidos-Montréal |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Star Wars Outlaws | $69.99 | 12,268 71% | 368k | $26M (exactly $25,759,120) | Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio | |
 | Foundation | $34.99 | 23,037 86% | 691k | $24M (exactly $24,181,939) | Polymorph Games | |
 | Avowed | $49.99 | 12,653 76% | 380k | $19M (exactly $18,975,704) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Vampire: The Masquerade® - Bloodlines™ 2 | $59.99 | 10,443 55% | 313k | $19M (exactly $18,794,267) | The Chinese Room | |
 | The Outer Worlds 2 | $69.99 | 8,450 73% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,742,465) | Obsidian Entertainment | |
 | Caves of Qud | $29.99 | 11,892 94% | 357k | $11M (exactly $10,699,232) | Freehold Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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