Do I ship it?

Games › Football (American) › Football (American) + Choices Matter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Choices Matter Football (American) game?

Football (American) + Choices Matter

Only 11 developers shipped a Choices Matter Football (American) game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Football Coach: College Dynasty, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×5.4 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $890k, ×594 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 7 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 7 announced, ×0.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (American) + Choices Matter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $124k → $8.1k (still earning) → $3.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (American) + Choices Matter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $3.6k (exactly $3,598)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 25% $30k (exactly $29,855)
Top 5% $891k (exactly $890,554)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 25
Announced 7
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (American)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Choices Matter
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (American), Choices Matter
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 1,874 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.6k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $29k, 1 in 20 over $890k.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.6k. 7 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (American) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + TacticalStrong odds12 devs · median $5.8k · 8 announced
  2. + Character CustomizationStrong odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 12 announced
  3. + PvPFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 12 announced
  4. + Local MultiplayerFair13 devs · median $1.8k · 4 announced
  5. + SportsFair50 devs · median $1.3k · 40 announced
  6. + ActionFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 6 announced
  7. + Football (Soccer)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  8. + ManagementPoor odds18 devs · median $3.6k · 18 announced
  9. + StrategyPoor odds22 devs · median $3.6k · 20 announced
  10. + SimulationPoor odds34 devs · median $2.4k · 19 announced
  11. + ArcadePoor odds13 devs · median $898 · 11 announced
  12. + PhysicsPoor odds11 devs · median $719 · 7 announced

All 12 pairs on the Football (American) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Football Coach: College Dynasty 2025 · $891k Front Office Football Nine 2023 · $148k Axis Football 2024 2023 · $124k Axis Football 2023 2022 · $114k Rugby Union Team Manager 4 2022 · $72k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Football Coach: College Dynasty $19.99 1,485 95% 45k $891k (exactly $890,554) SidelineSim Studios
Front Office Football Nine older $29.99 165 79% 5.0k $148k (exactly $148,450) Solecismic Software
Axis Football 2024 older $19.99 207 71% 6.2k $124k (exactly $124,138) Axis Games
Axis Football 2023 older $14.99 254 78% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Axis Games
Rugby Union Team Manager 4 older $39.99 60 70% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) Alternative Software Ltd
Axis Football 2026 $19.99 115 75% 3.5k $69k (exactly $68,966) Axis Games
Pro Strategy Football 2021 older $13.99 106 86% 3.2k $44k (exactly $44,488) Kerry Batts
Pro Strategy Football 2023 older $14.99 71 84% 2.1k $32k (exactly $31,929) Kerry Batts
Pro Strategy Football 2022 older $12.99 81 86% 2.4k $32k (exactly $31,566) Kerry Batts
Move The Chains - Season 1 · EA $11.99 83 77% 2.5k $30k (exactly $29,855) MissFortune
Axis Football 2027 $19.99 44 72% 1.3k $26k (exactly $26,387) Axis Games
War Room Football $9.99 71 94% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Tanish Jagtap
Football Fictional World Simulator $14.99 24 75% 720 $11k (exactly $10,793) keigo0221
Gridiron Masters '98 · EA $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Software98
Pro Strategy Football 2027 $24.99 5 60% 150 $3.7k (exactly $3,748) Kerry Batts
Dynasty! $14.99 8 87% 240 $3.6k (exactly $3,598) newberry94005
Coastal Summit Sports: College Athletics 27 $9.99 12 25% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Coastal Summit Sports

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.