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Should I ship a Choices Matter Roguelike Deckbuilder?
Choices Matter + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Of 113 developers who shipped a Choices Matter Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 186 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.3k; 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1519 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 186 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.2k (exactly $2,248) |
|---|---|
| Median | $8.1k (exactly $8,092) |
| Top 25% | $56k (exactly $55,988) |
| Top 5% | $721k (exactly $721,319) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 113 |
| Released games | 167 |
| Announced | 186 |
| Effort | 4 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 85% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Choices Matter
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
- Roguelike Deckbuilder
- effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs
What it takes
- Effort
- 4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
- Systems
- Choices Matter, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 25,937 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.3k. 6 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 186 games are announced against 74 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Choices Matter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomFair
- + SportsFair
- + RhythmFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + TriviaFair
- + Board GameFair
- + RacingFair
- + ChessFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + RomePoor odds
- + World War IPoor odds
Comparable games
Balatro 2024 · $72M 
Monster Train 2020 · $15M 
Griftlands 2021 · $8.1M 
Monster Train 2 2025 · $6.5M 
Hand of Fate 2 2017 · $4.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Balatro | older | $14.99 | 160,715 97% | 4.8M | $72M (exactly $72,273,536) | LocalThunk |
| | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
| | Griftlands | older | $19.99 | 13,440 93% | 403k | $8.1M (exactly $8,059,968) | Klei Entertainment |
| | Monster Train 2 | $24.99 | 8,647 95% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) | Shiny Shoe | |
| | Hand of Fate 2 | older | $29.99 | 5,273 84% | 158k | $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) | Defiant Development |
 | Backpack Hero | older | $19.99 | 7,423 85% | 223k | $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) | Jaspel |
 | Sol Cesto | $13.99 | 4,838 91% | 145k | $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) | Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale) | |
 | RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike | $11.99 | 4,239 82% | 127k | $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) | Doraccoon | |
 | Vault of the Void | older | $17.99 | 2,529 92% | 76k | $1.4M (exactly $1,364,901) | Spider Nest Games |
 | Hadean Tactics | older | $19.99 | 1,725 89% | 52k | $1.0M (exactly $1,034,482) | Emberfish Games |
 | Commander Quest | $11.99 | 2,804 74% | 84k | $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) | Flyway Games, Inc. | |
 | As We Descend | · EA | $19.99 | 1,336 86% | 40k | $801k (exactly $801,199) | Box Dragon |
 | Gambonanza | $14.99 | 1,604 74% | 48k | $721k (exactly $721,319) | Blukulélé | |
 | Shadowveil: Legend of The Five Rings | $24.99 | 469 74% | 14k | $352k (exactly $351,609) | Palindrome Interactive | |
 | Dice With Death | $13.99 | 779 91% | 23k | $327k (exactly $326,946) | Sea Glass Games | |
 | Insider Trading | $12.89 | 600 79% | 18k | $232k (exactly $232,020) | Naiive | |
 | Cube Chaos | $11.99 | 621 95% | 19k | $223k (exactly $223,374) | Wunarg |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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