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Should I ship a Wargame Sandbox?
Sandbox + Wargame
Of 82 developers who shipped a Wargame Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 142 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $790k, ×1266 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 142 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,169) |
|---|---|
| Median | $14k (exactly $13,941) |
| Top 25% | $103k (exactly $103,431) |
| Top 5% | $795k (exactly $795,335) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 82 |
| Released games | 236 |
| Announced | 142 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $10.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Grand Strategy
- Price point
- $10.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 18,793 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 46 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 142 games are announced against 41 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
Foxhole 2022 · $43M 
Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M 
Besiege 2020 · $22M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | Foxhole | older | $29.99 | 47,330 79% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $42,582,801) | Siege Camp |
| | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
| | Besiege | older | $14.99 | 48,045 95% | 1.4M | $22M (exactly $21,605,836) | Spiderling Studios |
 | Steel Division 2 | older | $39.99 | 8,061 79% | 242k | $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) | Eugen Systems |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts | older | $34.99 | 6,664 62% | 200k | $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) | Game-Labs |
 | RUNNING WITH RIFLES | older | $14.99 | 14,676 87% | 440k | $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) | Osumia Games |
 | Rising Front | $14.99 | 4,057 88% | 122k | $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) | Sandstorm Studios Inc. | |
 | Empire of the Ants | $39.99 | 931 73% | 28k | $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) | Tower Five | |
 | Sudden Strike 5 | $49.99 | 641 75% | 19k | $961k (exactly $961,308) | Kite Games | |
 | KAISERPUNK | $29.99 | 884 71% | 27k | $795k (exactly $795,335) | Overseer Games | |
 | Age of History 2: Definitive Edition | $9.99 | 2,600 83% | 78k | $779k (exactly $779,220) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Mandate Order | · EA | $19.99 | 1,110 81% | 33k | $666k (exactly $665,667) | Digital Sky |
 | Badlands Crew - Drive, Command, Conquer | $18.99 | 1,126 78% | 34k | $641k (exactly $641,482) | Runner Duck | |
 | Creeper World IXE | $19.99 | 855 69% | 26k | $513k (exactly $512,743) | Knuckle Cracker | |
 | Castle Craft | $19.99 | 480 82% | 14k | $288k (exactly $287,856) | Twin Earth |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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