Games › Wargame › Wargame + War
Should I ship a War Wargame?
Wargame + War
Of 372 developers who shipped a War Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 649 more are announced, ×3.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1788 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 649 games are announced against 204 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) |
| Top 25% | $27k (exactly $26,989) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 372 |
| Released games | 1,322 |
| Announced | 649 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.90 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Tactical
- Price point
- $9.90 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.90.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 146,678 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 215 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 649 games are announced against 204 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 2024 · $303M 
Squad 2020 · $217M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 | older | $59.99 | 168,628 84% | 5.1M | $303M (exactly $303,479,812) | Saber Interactive |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
 | Chivalry 2 | older | $39.99 | 46,707 79% | 1.4M | $56M (exactly $56,034,388) | Torn Banner Studios |
 | Verdun | older | $59.99 | 28,967 87% | 869k | $52M (exactly $52,131,910) | BlackMill Games |
 | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Company of Heroes 3 | older | $59.99 | 24,516 59% | 735k | $44M (exactly $44,121,445) | Relic Entertainment |
 | DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS | $69.99 | 19,578 92% | 587k | $41M (exactly $41,107,927) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
 | Tempest Rising | $39.99 | 9,811 87% | 294k | $12M (exactly $11,770,257) | Slipgate Ironworks™ | |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | Mechabellum | $14.99 | 17,856 84% | 536k | $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) | Game River | |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | Age of History 3 | $9.99 | 18,102 85% | 543k | $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) | Łukasz Jakowski | |
 | Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms | · EA | $19.99 | 6,652 88% | 200k | $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) | Free Wing |
 | Gallipoli | $29.99 | 4,015 78% | 120k | $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) | BlackMill Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.