Do I ship it?

Games › Strategy RPG › Strategy RPG + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Strategy RPG?

Strategy RPG + Wargame

Of 58 developers who shipped a Wargame Strategy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 127 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2240 the market median. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 127 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 127 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Strategy RPG + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 58
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.9k → $3.9k → $6.5k → $5.4k → $1.6k → $4.0k → $2.5k (still earning) → $3.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Strategy RPG + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 58
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,297)
Top 25% $32k (exactly $32,384)
Top 5% $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437)
Developers, 2 yr 58
Released games 247
Announced 127
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Strategy RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Strategy RPG, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, RPG
Price point
$10.00 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $10.00.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 16,500 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 127 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Strategy RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SportsFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  2. + SwordplayFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair40 devs · median $2.0k · 31 announced
  4. + EconomyFair95 devs · median $2.0k · 128 announced
  5. + Asynchronous MultiplayerFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  6. + ConspiracyFair19 devs · median $1.2k · 21 announced
  7. + Shop KeeperFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  8. + 2D PlatformerFair108 devs · median $479 · 113 announced
  9. + Point & ClickFair43 devs · median $450 · 47 announced
  10. + Turn-BasedPoor odds58 devs · median $63k · 76 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds30 devs · median $35k · 41 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds15 devs · median $31k · 33 announced

All 158 pairs on the Strategy RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Kingdom Heroes 8 2021 · $12M Ultimate General: Civil War 2017 · $7.5M TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children 2020 · $7.1M Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts 2023 · $7.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
DEFCON older $11.99 3,460 86% 104k $1.2M (exactly $1,244,562) Introversion Software
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
👑Idle Calibur：Zero💕（选王之剑：零） $10.99 445 80% 13k $147k (exactly $146,716) 绝汪
Monarch : Medieval Remastered $11.99 365 80% 11k $131k (exactly $131,290) Mr.Lordy
Pennon and Battle $18.99 175 69% 5.3k $100k (exactly $99,697) PB Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.