Do I ship it?

GamesReal-Time with PauseReal-Time with Pause + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Real-Time with Pause game?

Real-Time with Pause + Wargame

Only 11 developers shipped a Wargame Real-Time with Pause game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 24 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $37k, ×25 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $25k; 1 in 20 cleared $910k, ×610 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 24 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time with Pause + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Real-Time with Pause + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $25k (exactly $24,762)
Median $37k (exactly $36,934)
Top 25% $124k (exactly $123,737)
Top 5% $913k (exactly $913,196)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 50
Announced 24
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time with Pause
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Real-Time with Pause, Wargame
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 2,549 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $25k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $120k, 1 in 20 over $910k.

3 in 10 developers made under $25k. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 24 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with Pause with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + CombatStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + ActionFair16 devs · median $103k · 18 announced
  3. + Open WorldPoor odds8 devs · median $767k · 11 announced
  4. + AdventurePoor odds10 devs · median $561k · 7 announced
  5. + City BuilderPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 24 announced
  7. + Choices MatterPoor odds9 devs · median $215k · 23 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds14 devs · median $124k · 19 announced
  9. + MilitaryPoor odds11 devs · median $124k · 33 announced
  10. + MedievalPoor odds10 devs · median $87k · 22 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  12. + SurvivalPoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 27 announced

All 41 pairs on the Real-Time with Pause page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Steel Division 2 older $39.99 8,061 79% 242k $9.7M (exactly $9,670,782) Eugen Systems
Steel Division: Normandy 44 older $19.99 4,765 74% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,857,570) Eugen Systems
Hearts of Iron III older $9.99 4,962 76% 149k $1.5M (exactly $1,487,111) Paradox Development Studio
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Victory At Sea Pacific older $39.99 585 61% 18k $702k (exactly $701,824) Evil Twin Artworks
Supreme Ruler Ultimate older $19.99 1,169 77% 35k $701k (exactly $701,049) BattleGoat Studios
World Warfare & Economics · EA older $29.99 643 58% 19k $579k (exactly $578,507) Okron Studio
Original War older $9.99 1,812 94% 54k $543k (exactly $543,056) Altar Games
Darkest Hour: A Hearts of Iron Game older $9.99 1,723 90% 52k $516k (exactly $516,383) Martin Ivanov
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
States of Power $11.99 344 88% 10k $124k (exactly $123,737) Sarunas
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
Solar Wave · EA $17.99 80 75% 2.4k $43k (exactly $43,176) SavGus Studio
On The Western Front $13.99 88 84% 2.6k $37k (exactly $36,934) Aggroblakh
Trade Conquest $14.99 75 69% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) GrandPaw Games
Dread Admiral $13.99 59 89% 1.8k $25k (exactly $24,762) Tescrin Games
Earth of Oryn · EA $14.99 31 64% 930 $14k (exactly $13,941) Earth of Oryn
Samurai Conqueror $13.99 18 100% 540 $7.6k (exactly $7,555) Miura Production

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.