Do I ship it?

Games › Asynchronous Multiplayer › Asynchronous Multiplayer + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Wargame?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Wargame

Only 12 developers shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Conquest of Go, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.0k, ×9.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×416 the market median. Revenue is up 4645895% on the market; 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 4645895% on the market, 22 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9M → $160k → $26k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $6.0k (exactly $5,998)
Top 25% $72k (exactly $71,976)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,276)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 45
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 200% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Wargame
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 92% positive over 988 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $6.0k, 1 in 4 over $71k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 22 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Axis & Allies 1942 Online 2021 · $2.9M Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith 2017 · $2.3M Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator 2024 · $2.3M Root 2020 · $2.3M Solium Infernum 2024 · $1.9M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Dominions 6 - Rise of the Pantokrator older $44.99 1,686 90% 51k $2.3M (exactly $2,275,594) Illwinter Game Design
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Solium Infernum older $39.99 1,571 88% 47k $1.9M (exactly $1,884,729) League of Geeks
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Field of Glory II older $29.99 705 87% 21k $634k (exactly $634,288) Byzantine Games
Carrier Battles 4 Guadalcanal - Pacific War Naval Warfare older $29.99 305 87% 9.2k $274k (exactly $274,408) Cyril Jarnot
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Flashpoint Campaigns: Cold War $49.99 107 99% 3.2k $160k (exactly $160,468) On Target Simulations
No Retreat! The Russian Front $29.99 80 76% 2.4k $72k (exactly $71,976) Cyril Jarnot, Avalon Digital
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Riftborne · EA $7.99 108 91% 3.2k $26k (exactly $25,888) Pitio Productions
SGS Battle of the Bulge $24.99 8 37% 240 $6.0k (exactly $5,998) Strategy Game Studio
nurny battles HD $4.99 30 96% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) frogwood
Scrap Battalion $12.99 2 100% 60 $779 (exactly $779) Corrosive Mortar
HexArmy · EA $3.99 2 50% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Nechtan
Starnova Aerospace $0.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) DogGottenGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.