Do I ship it?

Games › RTS › RTS + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame RTS?

RTS + Wargame

Of 204 developers who shipped a Wargame RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 356 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×2.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×820 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 356 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 356 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 204
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $7.5k → $4.8k → $1.3k → $15k → $4.2k → $2.8k → $2.4k (still earning) → $1.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 204
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $3.3k (exactly $3,293)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,763)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785)
Developers, 2 yr 204
Released games 656
Announced 356
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Real Time Tactics, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 88,682 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $3.3k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 130 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 356 games are announced against 108 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Company of Heroes 3 2023 · $44M Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M WARNO 2024 · $17M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Total War: ROME REMASTERED older $29.99 12,627 77% 379k $11M (exactly $11,360,512) Creative Assembly, Feral Interactive
Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII older $59.99 5,828 57% 175k $10M (exactly $10,488,652) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE $59.99 3,118 49% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Ultimate General: American Revolution $49.99 917 51% 28k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) Game-Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.