Do I ship it?

Games › Turn-Based › Turn-Based + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Turn-Based game?

Turn-Based + Wargame

Only 17 developers shipped a Wargame Turn-Based game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mechabellum, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.0k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $8.0M, ×12786 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 16 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 16 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Turn-Based + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $158k → $53k → $193k → $13k → $8.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Turn-Based + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Median $3.0k (exactly $2,967)
Top 25% $61k (exactly $60,570)
Top 5% $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 176
Announced 16
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Turn-Based
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Turn-Based, Wargame; all of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 19,723 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $3.0k, 1 in 4 over $60k, 1 in 20 over $8.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + DragonsStrong odds7 devs · median $53k · 7 announced
  3. + Hack and SlashStrong odds8 devs · median $14k · 1 announced
  4. + SandboxFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  5. + HorrorFair16 devs · median $32k · 18 announced
  6. + CraftingFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair7 devs · median $14k · 8 announced
  8. + Perma DeathFair49 devs · median $10k · 57 announced
  9. + ArcadeFair35 devs · median $2.2k · 32 announced
  10. + ChessFair12 devs · median $1.2k · 13 announced
  11. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $294k · 7 announced
  12. + 4XPoor odds16 devs · median $193k · 26 announced

All 110 pairs on the Turn-Based page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV 2020 · $24M Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War 2018 · $9.8M Mechabellum 2024 · $8.0M TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children 2020 · $7.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV older $59.99 13,086 62% 393k $24M (exactly $23,550,874) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War older $39.99 8,148 82% 244k $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) Proxy Studios
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
TROUBLESHOOTER: Abandoned Children older $24.99 9,464 93% 284k $7.1M (exactly $7,095,161) Dandylion
Panzer Corps 2 older $39.99 3,512 84% 105k $4.2M (exactly $4,213,346) Flashback Games
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Panzer Corps Gold older $29.99 2,227 91% 67k $2.0M (exactly $2,003,632) Flashback Games, The Lordz Games Studio
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
NationWar2:Chronicle $16.99 378 78% 11k $193k (exactly $192,667) Yiming
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
1953: NATO vs Warsaw Pact $5.99 70 41% 2.1k $13k (exactly $12,579) Wastelands Interactive
Combat Mission 2: Barbarossa to Berlin $5.99 49 87% 1.5k $8.8k (exactly $8,805) Battlefront.com
Combat Mission: Beyond Overlord $5.99 27 96% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Battlefront.com
Small War $5.99 22 100% 660 $4.0k (exactly $3,953) ABCD
Tabletop Fantasy War $8.99 11 100% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) EdenDev Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.