Do I ship it?

Games › Base Building › Base Building + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Base Building game?

Base Building + Wargame

Of 101 developers who shipped a Wargame Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 206 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1199 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 206 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 206 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 101
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $7.0k → $3.0k → $718 → $6.2k → $7.1k → $14k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 101
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,389)
Top 25% $37k (exactly $36,826)
Top 5% $753k (exactly $753,248)
Developers, 2 yr 101
Released games 288
Announced 206
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building, Wargame; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Action
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 105,788 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $36k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 206 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Squad 2020 · $217M WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M This War of Mine 2014 · $49M Foxhole 2022 · $43M Starship Troopers: Extermination 2024 · $27M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Last Train Home older $39.99 4,511 86% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,411,847) Ashborne Games
Warpips older $16.99 4,339 87% 130k $2.2M (exactly $2,211,588) Skirmish Mode Games
ZeroSpace · EA $39.99 1,161 78% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) Starlance Studios, Ironward
Medieval Kingdom Wars older $14.99 2,233 76% 67k $1.0M (exactly $1,004,180) Reverie World Studios
Vietnam War · EA $14.99 1,704 84% 51k $766k (exactly $766,289) Thorium Game Lab
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Mandate Order · EA $19.99 1,110 81% 33k $666k (exactly $665,667) Digital Sky
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
IDUN - Frontline Survival $14.99 685 77% 21k $308k (exactly $308,044) IDUN Interactive
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.