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Should I ship a Deckbuilding Wargame?
Wargame + Deckbuilding
Of 23 developers who shipped a Deckbuilding Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 49 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.8k, ×7.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1199 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 49 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $300 (exactly $300) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.8k (exactly $4,844) |
| Top 25% | $94k (exactly $94,106) |
| Top 5% | $753k (exactly $753,248) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 53 |
| Announced | 49 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Wargame
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Deckbuilding
- effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Wargame, Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Roguelite
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 59% positive over 30,073 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 49 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Local MultiplayerFair
- + NavalFair
- + TabletopFair
- + LogicFair
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + StealthPoor odds
- + DiplomacyPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
Comparable games
Broken Arrow 2025 · $39M 
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) 2020 · $953k 
Border Pioneer 2025 · $753k 
Warriors of the Nile 2 2022 · $531k 
There Are No Orcs 2025 · $320k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
| | Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) | older | $29.99 | 1,059 70% | 32k | $953k (exactly $952,782) | Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games |
| | Border Pioneer | $14.99 | 1,675 86% | 50k | $753k (exactly $753,248) | Yahzj Games | |
| | Warriors of the Nile 2 | older | $14.99 | 1,180 88% | 35k | $531k (exactly $530,646) | Stove Studio |
| | There Are No Orcs | $8.99 | 1,188 93% | 36k | $320k (exactly $320,404) | BaseTrade Studio | |
 | Yokai Art: Night Parade of One Hundred Demons | older | $6.99 | 1,132 89% | 34k | $237k (exactly $237,380) | Secret Labo |
 | Warlords Under Siege | $9.99 | 436 77% | 13k | $131k (exactly $130,669) | RedKar Devs | |
 | Flowers and Deities | $12.99 | 265 90% | 8.0k | $103k (exactly $103,270) | Chill Winter Studio | |
 | Yokai Art 2: Tales of the Nine-Tails | $9.99 | 314 75% | 9.4k | $94k (exactly $94,106) | Secret Labo | |
 | Rainbow Legends | $12.99 | 90 74% | 2.7k | $35k (exactly $35,073) | Unpixel Cloud Cedar Studio | |
 | Mini Tank Mayhem | $11.99 | 93 88% | 2.8k | $33k (exactly $33,452) | Algorocks | |
 | Vestiges: Fallen Tribes | $24.99 | 36 80% | 1.1k | $27k (exactly $26,989) | WanadevStudio | |
 | Warlords of the Deck | $7.99 | 52 67% | 1.6k | $12k (exactly $12,464) | Legion Forge Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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