Do I ship it?

GamesStealthStealth + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Stealth game?

Stealth + Wargame

Only 10 developers shipped a Wargame Stealth game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Commandos: Origins, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×33 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $7.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.7M, ×4404 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 39 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 32.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 39 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Stealth + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.0k → $833k → $21k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Stealth + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $7.4k (exactly $7,431)
Median $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 25% $83k (exactly $82,759)
Top 5% $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 54
Announced 39
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.00

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Stealth
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Stealth, Wargame
Price point
$12.00 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 9 games average 87% positive over 5,103 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $7.5k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $82k, 1 in 20 over $2.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $7.5k. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Stealth with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + JRPGFair7 devs · median $1.3k · 12 announced
  2. + World War IIPoor odds11 devs · median $43k · 14 announced
  3. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $30k · 30 announced
  4. + Turn-Based CombatPoor odds8 devs · median $27k · 31 announced
  5. + DinosaursPoor odds10 devs · median $17k · 23 announced
  6. + Gun CustomizationPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  7. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $13k · 57 announced
  8. + Cold WarPoor odds7 devs · median $10k · 31 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds32 devs · median $9.6k · 76 announced
  10. + MilitaryPoor odds43 devs · median $8.5k · 122 announced
  11. + WarPoor odds30 devs · median $7.6k · 89 announced
  12. + DrivingPoor odds18 devs · median $6.6k · 35 announced

All 159 pairs on the Stealth page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
Six Days in Fallujah · EA older $39.99 13,012 79% 390k $16M (exactly $15,610,496) Highwire Games
Nuclear Option · EA older $19.99 10,275 95% 308k $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) Shockfront Studios
VLADiK BRUTAL older $11.99 9,551 89% 287k $3.4M (exactly $3,435,495) BRUTAL SOFTWARE
Commandos: Origins $49.99 1,844 79% 55k $2.8M (exactly $2,765,447) Claymore Game Studios
Tactical Assault VR · EA older $19.99 3,375 77% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,023,987) HammerFire Interactive
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Black One Blood Brothers · EA older $17.99 1,366 78% 41k $737k (exactly $737,230) Helios Studio
Land of War - The Beginning older $19.99 713 53% 21k $428k (exactly $427,586) MS GAMES
Fursan al-Aqsa: The Knights of the Al-Aqsa Mosque older $14.99 930 96% 28k $418k (exactly $418,221) Nidal Nijm Games
F-22: Air Dominance Fighter $19.99 138 91% 4.1k $83k (exactly $82,759) Digital Image Design Ltd.
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
FULL METAL COFFIN $4.99 137 94% 4.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) Titanite, Mantle Array, Xenith
Beyond Enemy Lines - Vietnam · EA $14.99 42 66% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Polygon Art
Partisan $7.99 31 83% 930 $7.4k (exactly $7,431) Paradigm
Instruments of Peace $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Outlaw Games
Portable Ops 2 · EA $12.00 2 0% 60 $720 (exactly $720) Outlaw Games
One Bear Army · EA $12.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) ONE BEAR ARMY

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.