Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game Wargame?

Wargame + Card Game

Of 24 developers who shipped a Card Game Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×4.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.4k, ×10 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×510 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 54 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 54 announced, ×4.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $449 → $1.1k → $27k → $19k → $1.1k (still earning) → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,073)
Top 5% $320k (exactly $320,404)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 88
Announced 54
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 38%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Base Building, City Builder
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 4,328 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $6.4k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M Root 2020 · $2.3M Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) 2020 · $953k Warriors of the Nile 2020 · $940k Twilight Struggle 2016 · $770k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Border Pioneer $14.99 1,675 86% 50k $753k (exactly $753,248) Yahzj Games
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Unmatched: Digital Edition older $22.99 274 74% 8.2k $189k (exactly $188,978) Dire Wolf
Kingdom's Deck $9.99 495 72% 15k $148k (exactly $148,352) Ivan Aco
Warlords Under Siege $9.99 436 77% 13k $131k (exactly $130,669) RedKar Devs
ZombieCards $5.99 232 48% 7.0k $42k (exactly $41,690) HotScent
Rainbow Legends $12.99 90 74% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,073) Unpixel Cloud Cedar Studio
Mini Tank Mayhem $11.99 93 88% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,452) Algorocks
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Missile Command Delta $19.99 31 83% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) 13AM Games, Mighty Yell
Warlords of the Deck $7.99 52 67% 1.6k $12k (exactly $12,464) Legion Forge Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.