Do I ship it?

GamesCo-opCo-op + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Co-op Wargame?

Co-op + Wargame

Of 43 developers who shipped a Co-op Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 84 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $21k, ×14 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×750 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 84 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 13.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 84 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Co-op + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $158k → $32k → $2.3M → $57k → $33k → $17k → $4.0k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Co-op + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 25% $100k (exactly $99,697)
Top 5% $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 162
Announced 84
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 30%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Co-op
effort 7 / 10 · low · co-op on Steam means online sessions and drop-in sync
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Co-op, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, PvP, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 52,684 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $21k, 1 in 4 over $99k, 1 in 20 over $1.1M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 6 in 10 of the 30 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 84 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Co-op with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SuperheroFair9 devs · median $11k · 17 announced
  2. + Boomer ShooterFair16 devs · median $6.9k · 24 announced
  3. + GamblingFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  4. + NinjaFair13 devs · median $4.2k · 13 announced
  5. + TypingLong shot16 devs · median $810 · 13 announced
  6. + Word GameLong shot23 devs · median $267 · 23 announced
  7. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds58 devs · median $515k · 127 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds12 devs · median $372k · 23 announced
  9. + AutomationPoor odds48 devs · median $369k · 110 announced
  10. + TransportationPoor odds17 devs · median $369k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds15 devs · median $164k · 19 announced
  12. + Turn-BasedPoor odds12 devs · median $131k · 19 announced

All 230 pairs on the Co-op page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 older $59.99 168,628 84% 5.1M $303M (exactly $303,479,812) Saber Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Europa Universalis IV older $49.99 94,114 87% 2.8M $141M (exactly $141,142,766) Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto)
Bodycam · EA older $33.32 60,179 80% 1.8M $60M (exactly $60,154,928) Reissad Studio
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Company of Heroes 3 older $59.99 24,516 59% 735k $44M (exactly $44,121,445) Relic Entertainment
Foxhole older $29.99 47,330 79% 1.4M $43M (exactly $42,582,801) Siege Camp
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Starship Troopers: Extermination $29.99 29,724 80% 892k $27M (exactly $26,742,683) Offworld
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
ICBM: Escalation $29.99 1,248 86% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,826) SoftWarWare
Empire of the Ants $39.99 931 73% 28k $1.1M (exactly $1,116,921) Tower Five
Company of Heroes 3: Final Stand $29.99 1,015 49% 30k $913k (exactly $913,196) Relic Entertainment
Warside $24.99 547 68% 16k $410k (exactly $410,086) LAVABIRD
Solar Nations 2 · EA $14.99 609 85% 18k $274k (exactly $273,867) Flomgus Games
Industrial Annihilation · EA $29.99 206 27% 6.2k $185k (exactly $185,338) Galactic Annihilation
EXFIL · EA $19.99 302 67% 9.1k $181k (exactly $181,109) Tiny Leviathan
Remote Reaper: FPV Combat Drone Simulator · EA $19.99 246 92% 7.4k $148k (exactly $147,526) Vladyslav Fomenko

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.