Do I ship it?

GamesWargameWargame + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Wargame?

Wargame + Capitalism

Of 20 developers who shipped a Capitalist Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $700k, ×1121 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 25 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $13k → $119k → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,587)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,974)
Top 5% $704k (exactly $703,683)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 27
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Economy, Grand Strategy
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 52% positive over 1,458 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $700k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Geo-Political Simulator 2026 Edition $59.99 249 48% 7.5k $448k (exactly $448,125) Eversim
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
Realpolitiks 3: Earth and Beyond $24.99 253 39% 7.6k $190k (exactly $189,674) Jujubee
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Imperial Ambitions $19.99 101 81% 3.0k $61k (exactly $60,570) aoiti
Global Protocol: New World Order · EA $19.99 85 71% 2.6k $51k (exactly $50,974) Dorlion Interactive
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
Trade Conquest $14.99 75 69% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) GrandPaw Games
Simulator of Ukraine 1991 older $3.99 212 85% 6.4k $25k (exactly $25,376) Almost Games
Trump Simulator 2025 $3.99 106 91% 3.2k $13k (exactly $12,688) Luke Gayson
World Order: Global Power · EA $19.99 8 87% 240 $4.8k (exactly $4,798) Global Strategy Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.