Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + World War I

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a WWI Wargame?

Wargame + World War I

Of 23 developers who shipped a WWI Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $5.4M, ×8639 the market median. Revenue is up 8650% on the market; 38 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 8650% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + World War I
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $345k → $541k → $449 → $50k → $3.2k → $17k → $779k (still earning) → $32k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + World War I: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,545)
Top 25% $184k (exactly $183,938)
Top 5% $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 78
Announced 38
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 8645% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
World War I
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Wargame; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 43,753 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $180k, 1 in 20 over $5.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Verdun 2015 · $52M Isonzo 2022 · $17M Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator 2026 · $8.0M Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Verdun older $59.99 28,967 87% 869k $52M (exactly $52,131,910) BlackMill Games
Isonzo older $39.99 14,434 85% 433k $17M (exactly $17,316,470) BlackMill Games
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator $19.99 13,278 97% 398k $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Age of History 3 $9.99 18,102 85% 543k $5.4M (exactly $5,425,169) Łukasz Jakowski
Last Train Home older $39.99 4,511 86% 135k $5.4M (exactly $5,411,847) Ashborne Games
Tannenberg older $19.99 7,644 86% 229k $4.6M (exactly $4,584,107) Blackmill Games
Gallipoli $29.99 4,015 78% 120k $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) BlackMill Games
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Age of History 2: Definitive Edition $9.99 2,600 83% 78k $779k (exactly $779,220) Łukasz Jakowski
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
On The Western Front $13.99 88 84% 2.6k $37k (exactly $36,934) Aggroblakh
Acceptable Losses $7.99 133 80% 4.0k $32k (exactly $31,880) Zann Archive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.