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Should I ship a Wargame Simulation game?
Simulation + Wargame
Of 300 developers who shipped a Wargame Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 446 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $840; 1 in 20 cleared $1.1M, ×1759 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 446 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $838 (exactly $838) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) |
| Top 25% | $50k (exactly $49,882) |
| Top 5% | $1.1M (exactly $1,104,832) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 300 |
| Released games | 1,005 |
| Announced | 446 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Wargame
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Wargame; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Tactical, RTS
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 142,528 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $840. 7 in 10 of the 158 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 446 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Squad 2020 · $217M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Europa Universalis IV 2013 · $141M 
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
WARDOGS 2026 · EA · $70M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Europa Universalis IV | older | $49.99 | 94,114 87% | 2.8M | $141M (exactly $141,142,766) | Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tin… (Paradox Development Studio, Paradox Tinto) |
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Bodycam | · EA older | $33.32 | 60,179 80% | 1.8M | $60M (exactly $60,154,928) | Reissad Studio |
 | Total War: WARHAMMER | older | $59.99 | 32,105 79% | 963k | $58M (exactly $57,779,368) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac)) |
 | Verdun | older | $59.99 | 28,967 87% | 869k | $52M (exactly $52,131,910) | BlackMill Games |
 | This War of Mine | older | $19.99 | 81,804 93% | 2.5M | $49M (exactly $49,057,859) | 11 bit studios |
 | Europa Universalis V | $59.99 | 25,353 66% | 761k | $46M (exactly $45,627,794) | Paradox Tinto | |
 | Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age | · EA | $49.99 | 6,109 90% | 183k | $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) | Triassic Games |
 | Mechabellum | $14.99 | 17,856 84% | 536k | $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) | Game River | |
 | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS 8 REMAKE | $59.99 | 3,118 49% | 94k | $5.6M (exactly $5,611,465) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms | · EA | $19.99 | 6,652 88% | 200k | $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) | Free Wing |
 | Gallipoli | $29.99 | 4,015 78% | 120k | $3.6M (exactly $3,612,296) | BlackMill Games | |
 | Master of Command | $29.99 | 3,840 92% | 115k | $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) | Armchair Interactive | |
 | Rising Front | $14.99 | 4,057 88% | 122k | $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) | Sandstorm Studios Inc. |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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