Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Naval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Naval Wargame?

Wargame + Naval

Of 37 developers who shipped a Naval Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 37 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 37 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Naval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 37
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $245k → $4.5k → $239 → $110k → $1.2k → $12k → $7.2k (still earning) → $2.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Naval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 37
Bottom 30% $899 (exactly $899)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $50,097)
Top 5% $795k (exactly $795,335)
Developers, 2 yr 37
Released games 113
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Naval
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Wargame; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Strategy, Naval Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,734 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $790k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 8 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  4. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  6. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  10. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds34 devs · median $11k · 49 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Holdfast: Nations At War 2020 · $16M Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts 2023 · $7.0M Naval Action 2019 · $6.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Holdfast: Nations At War older $19.99 26,624 90% 799k $16M (exactly $15,966,413) Anvil Game Studios
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Ultimate Admiral: Dreadnoughts older $34.99 6,664 62% 200k $7.0M (exactly $6,995,201) Game-Labs
Naval Action older $19.99 10,187 52% 306k $6.1M (exactly $6,109,144) Bermuda Computer Club
Cold Waters older $39.99 4,603 87% 138k $5.5M (exactly $5,522,219) Killerfish Games
War on the Sea older $39.99 3,151 76% 95k $3.8M (exactly $3,780,255) Killerfish Games
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Ultimate Admiral: Age of Sail older $29.99 2,007 78% 60k $1.8M (exactly $1,805,698) Game-Labs
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
KAISERPUNK $29.99 884 71% 27k $795k (exactly $795,335) Overseer Games
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Modern Naval Warfare · EA $59.99 237 58% 7.1k $427k (exactly $426,529) Wave Ops
Battleship Command · EA $24.99 278 93% 8.3k $208k (exactly $208,417) Bracer
SeaCret 1 · EA $39.99 99 61% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Dalas
Silent Shark $17.99 125 98% 3.8k $67k (exactly $67,462) John Goering
大戦略SSB2 $59.99 36 66% 1.1k $65k (exactly $64,789) Systemsoft beta, Inc.
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
ShipCrafter · EA $7.99 209 90% 6.3k $50k (exactly $50,097) Myrmecoman

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.