Do I ship it?

Games › Real-Time › Real-Time + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Wargame Real-Time game?

Real-Time + Wargame

Only 13 developers shipped a Wargame Real-Time game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tempest Rising, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $37k, ×59 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $22k; 1 in 20 cleared $11M, ×18742 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 58.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 17 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real-Time + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $3.0k → $60k → $288k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real-Time + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $22k (exactly $21,589)
Median $37k (exactly $36,826)
Top 25% $288k (exactly $287,856)
Top 5% $12M (exactly $11,770,257)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 63
Announced 17
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $19.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real-Time
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real-Time, Wargame; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Action, RTS
Price point
$19.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 17,679 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $22k, median $37k, 1 in 4 over $280k, 1 in 20 over $11M.

3 in 10 developers made under $22k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real-Time with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Character CustomizationStrong odds7 devs · median $2.0k · 6 announced
  2. + RogueliteFair11 devs · median $11k · 14 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  4. + HistoricalPoor odds10 devs · median $52k · 15 announced
  5. + WarPoor odds14 devs · median $37k · 20 announced
  6. + Base BuildingPoor odds21 devs · median $37k · 33 announced
  7. + PhysicsPoor odds7 devs · median $33k · 13 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds9 devs · median $32k · 17 announced
  9. + Action RTSPoor odds12 devs · median $31k · 18 announced
  10. + StrategyPoor odds39 devs · median $28k · 75 announced
  11. + RTSPoor odds21 devs · median $22k · 40 announced
  12. + SimulationPoor odds25 devs · median $22k · 43 announced

All 40 pairs on the Real-Time page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Wargame: Red Dragon 2014 · $14M Tempest Rising 2025 · $12M Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age 2024 · EA · $9.2M Starship Troopers: Terran Command 2022 · $8.3M Airships: Conquer the Skies 2018 · $4.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wargame: Red Dragon older $29.99 15,758 88% 473k $14M (exactly $14,177,473) Eugen Systems
Tempest Rising $39.99 9,811 87% 294k $12M (exactly $11,770,257) Slipgate Ironworks™
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Starship Troopers: Terran Command older $29.99 9,214 87% 276k $8.3M (exactly $8,289,836) The Artistocrats
Airships: Conquer the Skies older $24.99 6,197 95% 186k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,891) David Stark
Sudden Strike 4 older $19.99 6,249 78% 187k $3.7M (exactly $3,747,525) Kite Games
Steel Division: Normandy 44 older $19.99 4,765 74% 143k $2.9M (exactly $2,857,570) Eugen Systems
Syrian Warfare older $13.99 5,246 86% 157k $2.2M (exactly $2,201,746) Cats Who Play
Wargame: Airland Battle older $19.99 3,592 86% 108k $2.2M (exactly $2,154,122) Eugen Systems
Wargame: European Escalation older $9.99 2,605 76% 78k $781k (exactly $780,718) Eugen Systems
Task Force Admiral - Vol.1: American Carrier Battles · EA $39.99 633 87% 19k $759k (exactly $759,410) Drydock Dreams Games
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
Moduwar · EA $14.99 134 88% 4.0k $60k (exactly $60,260) Biohex Studios
MORSE $13.99 124 93% 3.7k $52k (exactly $52,043) ALJO Games
The Legend of Mala Tokmachka $4.99 246 71% 7.4k $37k (exactly $36,826) The Current Thing
WARSHIFT 2 $19.99 54 70% 1.6k $32k (exactly $32,384) Cyril Megem
Battlefall: State of Conflict · EA $19.99 52 63% 1.6k $31k (exactly $31,184) Kyoto Video Game Concern
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.