Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Wargame?

Wargame + Tabletop

Of 50 developers who shipped a Tabletop Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 57 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $150. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 57 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 57 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 50
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.1k → $1.4k → $5.4k → $150 → $6.4k → $899 → $1.1k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 50
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,840)
Top 5% $261k (exactly $261,276)
Developers, 2 yr 50
Released games 138
Announced 57
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.98

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame, Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Board Game
Price point
$9.98 typical · top 25% priced $22.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $22.99 or above; the middle game at $9.98.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 4,902 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 57 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  5. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  6. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  9. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  10. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  11. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced
  12. + Cold WarPoor odds34 devs · median $11k · 49 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M Ultimate General: Civil War 2017 · $7.5M Axis & Allies 1942 Online 2021 · $2.9M Root 2020 · $2.3M Tabletop Tavern 2026 · $1.2M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Ultimate General: Civil War older $29.99 8,331 88% 250k $7.5M (exactly $7,495,401) Game-Labs
Axis & Allies 1942 Online older $19.99 4,810 78% 144k $2.9M (exactly $2,884,557) Beamdog
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Tabletop Tavern $19.99 2,049 89% 61k $1.2M (exactly $1,228,785) TJ
Radio Commander: Vietnam '64 older $19.99 1,764 72% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,057,871) Serious Sim
A Game of Thrones: The Board Game - Digital Edition older $19.99 1,705 71% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,022,488) Dire Wolf
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Doodle Empires · EA $6.99 1,279 92% 38k $268k (exactly $268,206) Turtle Stack Games
The Conquest of Go $14.99 581 94% 17k $261k (exactly $261,276) Wolfey Studios
Strategos · EA $24.99 233 85% 7.0k $175k (exactly $174,680) Strategos Games
Mr. President $19.99 162 75% 4.9k $97k (exactly $97,151) Exia Labs
Divine's Howl $9.99 169 89% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,649) Sense13 Studio
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
ZombieCards $5.99 232 48% 7.0k $42k (exactly $41,690) HotScent
Rainbow Legends $12.99 90 74% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,073) Unpixel Cloud Cedar Studio
Headquarters: Cold War $29.99 37 64% 1.1k $33k (exactly $33,289) Starni Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.