Do I ship it?

Games › Wargame › Wargame + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Wargame?

Wargame + Magic

Of 28 developers who shipped a Magic Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×510 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 66 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 66 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Wargame + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $1.4k → $1.3k → $598 → $2.2k → $100k → $300 (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Wargame + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,514)
Top 25% $33k (exactly $32,903)
Top 5% $320k (exactly $320,404)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 109
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Action
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $21.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $21.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 3,170 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $32k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Wargame with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $4.6k · 20 announced
  2. + Local MultiplayerFair28 devs · median $3.0k · 28 announced
  3. + NavalFair37 devs · median $2.4k · 37 announced
  4. + TabletopFair50 devs · median $1.1k · 57 announced
  5. + LogicFair20 devs · median $599 · 26 announced
  6. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds11 devs · median $37k · 24 announced
  7. + Real-TimePoor odds13 devs · median $37k · 17 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds43 devs · median $21k · 84 announced
  9. + StealthPoor odds10 devs · median $21k · 39 announced
  10. + DiplomacyPoor odds34 devs · median $17k · 59 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds24 devs · median $16k · 55 announced
  12. + SandboxPoor odds82 devs · median $14k · 142 announced

All 147 pairs on the Wargame page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith 2017 · $2.3M Warriors of the Nile 2020 · $940k Warriors of the Nile 2 2022 · $531k BRIGANDINE ABYSS 2026 · $372k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Dominions 5 - Warriors of the Faith older $39.99 1,924 94% 58k $2.3M (exactly $2,308,223) Illwinter Game Design
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
BRIGANDINE ABYSS $49.99 248 35% 7.4k $372k (exactly $371,926) Adglobe
Immortal Realms: Vampire Wars older $29.99 408 62% 12k $367k (exactly $367,078) Palindrome Interactive
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Castle Craft $19.99 480 82% 14k $288k (exactly $287,856) Twin Earth
CountryBalls Heroes older $14.99 408 77% 12k $183k (exactly $183,478) Innominate Games
Vestaria Saga II: The Sacred Sword of Silvanister older $19.99 235 87% 7.1k $141k (exactly $140,930) Vestaria Project
Liquidation RTS · EA $21.99 161 89% 4.8k $106k (exactly $106,212) Divio
Mage and Monsters II $8.99 372 82% 11k $100k (exactly $100,328) Lasse Zacho Malver
Pennon and Battle $18.99 175 69% 5.3k $100k (exactly $99,697) PB Studio
Sunbreak War $8.99 122 81% 3.7k $33k (exactly $32,903) Candlelight Studio
Beach Defense: Zombie Invasion $3.99 197 81% 5.9k $24k (exactly $23,581) Only Fun Games
Demigoddess! $6.99 111 97% 3.3k $23k (exactly $23,277) SNP Engineering
Last Stand: Defense $5.99 116 81% 3.5k $21k (exactly $20,845) ZiiTech Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.