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Should I ship a Physics Wargame?
Physics + Wargame
Of 47 developers who shipped a Physics Wargame in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 68 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1146 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 68 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $537 (exactly $537) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,878) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $55,172) |
| Top 5% | $720k (exactly $719,760) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 47 |
| Released games | 121 |
| Announced | 68 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Simulation, Tactical
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 92% positive over 20,972 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 68 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Totally Accurate Battle Simulator 2021 · $86M 
Bodycam 2024 · EA · $60M 
Tabletop Simulator 2015 · $28M 
Besiege 2020 · $22M 
IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator 2026 · $8.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
| | Bodycam | · EA older | $33.32 | 60,179 80% | 1.8M | $60M (exactly $60,154,928) | Reissad Studio |
| | Tabletop Simulator | older | $19.99 | 46,875 95% | 1.4M | $28M (exactly $28,110,937) | Berserk Games |
| | Besiege | older | $14.99 | 48,045 95% | 1.4M | $22M (exactly $21,605,836) | Spiderling Studios |
| | IRON NEST: Heavy Turret Simulator | $19.99 | 13,278 97% | 398k | $8.0M (exactly $7,962,817) | Nick Nieuwoudt, Dominik Latos | |
 | Sprocket | · EA older | $19.99 | 12,336 92% | 370k | $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) | Hamish Dunn |
 | Nuclear Option | · EA older | $19.99 | 10,275 95% | 308k | $6.2M (exactly $6,161,917) | Shockfront Studios |
 | Creeper World 4 | older | $24.99 | 4,553 94% | 137k | $3.4M (exactly $3,413,384) | Knuckle Cracker |
 | Animal Revolt Battle Simulator | older | $14.99 | 6,571 95% | 197k | $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) | VDimension |
 | Cleared Hot | · EA | $17.99 | 3,934 96% | 118k | $2.1M (exactly $2,123,180) | Not Knowing Corporation |
 | Ukrainian Fight Drone Simulator (UFDS) - FPV drone simulator | $29.99 | 800 80% | 24k | $720k (exactly $719,760) | SIMTECH SOLUTIONS | |
 | Creeper World IXE | $19.99 | 855 69% | 26k | $513k (exactly $512,743) | Knuckle Cracker | |
 | Modern Naval Warfare | · EA | $59.99 | 237 58% | 7.1k | $427k (exactly $426,529) | Wave Ops |
 | Ratten Reich | $19.99 | 616 40% | 18k | $369k (exactly $369,415) | METALLADLERSTUDIO | |
 | Castle Craft | $19.99 | 480 82% | 14k | $288k (exactly $287,856) | Twin Earth | |
 | Remote Reaper: FPV Combat Drone Simulator | · EA | $19.99 | 246 92% | 7.4k | $148k (exactly $147,526) | Vladyslav Fomenko |
 | Dawn Apart | · EA | $19.99 | 245 68% | 7.4k | $147k (exactly $146,926) | Industrial Technology and Witchcraft |
 | Plastic Battlegrounds | · EA | $9.99 | 281 89% | 8.4k | $84k (exactly $84,216) | Simulated Minds |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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