Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an RPG?

RPG

Of 6,545 developers who shipped an RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13,325 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.4k, ×3.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $760k, ×1211 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 13,325 games are announced against 3,931 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.8 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 13,325 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 6,545
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.7k → $2.8k → $3.7k → $3.2k → $3.3k → $3.0k → $1.9k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 6,545
Bottom 30% $390 (exactly $390)
Median $2.4k (exactly $2,395)
Top 25% $28k (exactly $27,890)
Top 5% $760k (exactly $760,339)
Developers, 2 yr 6,545
Released games 24,807
Announced 13,325
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,643,294 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $2.4k, 1 in 4 over $27k, 1 in 20 over $760k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 8 in 10 of the 3,829 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13,325 games are announced against 3,931 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with RPG

78 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. RPG + Samurai Poor odds $261k 14 devs
  2. RPG + Wuxia Poor odds $26k 37 devs
  3. RPG + Farming Poor odds $22k 30 devs
  4. RPG + Horses Poor odds $18k 20 devs
  5. RPG + Cold War Poor odds $17k 6 devs
  6. RPG + Villain Protagonist Poor odds $17k 17 devs
  7. RPG + Music Poor odds $17k 26 devs
  8. RPG + Romance Poor odds $11k 575 devs
  9. RPG + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $8.7k 311 devs
  10. RPG + Dwarves Poor odds $8.0k 20 devs
  11. RPG + Dinosaurs Poor odds $7.8k 30 devs
  12. RPG + Hacking Poor odds $7.8k 29 devs
  13. RPG + Female Protagonist Poor odds $7.3k 1,057 devs
  14. RPG + Trains Poor odds $6.8k 6 devs
  15. RPG + Martial Arts Poor odds $6.1k 101 devs
  16. RPG + Lovecraftian Poor odds $6.0k 108 devs
  17. RPG + Western Poor odds $5.9k 29 devs
  18. RPG + Vikings Poor odds $5.4k 11 devs
  19. RPG + Time Travel Poor odds $4.7k 43 devs
  20. RPG + Werewolves Poor odds $4.7k 24 devs
  21. RPG + Animals Poor odds $4.7k 24 devs
  22. RPG + Rome Poor odds $4.6k 19 devs
  23. RPG + Capitalism Poor odds $4.6k 85 devs
  24. RPG + War Poor odds $4.3k 163 devs
  25. RPG + Steampunk Poor odds $4.2k 55 devs
  26. RPG + Modern Poor odds $3.8k 167 devs
  27. RPG + Pirates Poor odds $3.6k 54 devs
  28. RPG + Crime Poor odds $3.6k 104 devs
  29. RPG + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $3.4k 330 devs
  30. RPG + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 247 devs
  31. RPG + Ninja Poor odds $3.3k 25 devs
  32. RPG + Cyberpunk Poor odds $3.3k 200 devs
  33. RPG + Sci-fi Poor odds $3.2k 594 devs
  34. RPG + Dystopian Poor odds $3.1k 144 devs
  35. RPG + Gothic Poor odds $3.1k 128 devs
  36. RPG + Psychological Horror Poor odds $3.1k 419 devs
  37. RPG + Military Poor odds $2.9k 90 devs
  38. RPG + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $2.9k 968 devs
  39. RPG + Horror Poor odds $2.7k 595 devs
  40. RPG + Noir Poor odds $2.7k 95 devs
  41. RPG + Thriller Poor odds $2.7k 161 devs
  42. RPG + Fantasy Poor odds $2.6k 2,481 devs
  43. RPG + Vampires Poor odds $2.5k 92 devs
  44. RPG + Magic Poor odds $2.4k 1,064 devs
  45. RPG + Mythology Poor odds $2.4k 240 devs
  46. RPG + Supernatural Poor odds $2.3k 183 devs
  47. RPG + Medieval Poor odds $2.3k 940 devs
  48. RPG + World War II Poor odds $2.2k 12 devs
  49. RPG + Underground Poor odds $2.2k 67 devs
  50. RPG + Mystery Poor odds $2.2k 580 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyberpunk 2077 older $59.99 883,400 87% 27M $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) CD PROJEKT RED
Black Myth: Wukong older $59.99 881,186 96% 26M $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) Game Science
ELDEN RING older $59.99 831,470 93% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) FromSoftware, Inc.
Baldur's Gate 3 older $59.99 755,010 96% 23M $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) Larian Studios
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition older $49.99 823,357 96% 25M $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) CD PROJEKT RED
DARK SOULS™ III older $59.99 278,034 94% 8.3M $500M (exactly $500,377,790) FromSoftware, Inc.
Hogwarts Legacy older $59.99 274,801 89% 8.2M $495M (exactly $494,559,360) Avalanche Software
Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition older $59.99 259,508 95% 7.8M $467M (exactly $467,036,548) FromSoftware, Inc.
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
Terraria older $9.99 1,240,388 97% 37M $372M (exactly $371,744,284) Re-Logic
Palworld $29.99 411,947 94% 12M $371M (exactly $370,628,716) Pocketpair
Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 $49.99 181,667 95% 5.5M $272M (exactly $272,446,000) Sandfall Interactive
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Crimson Desert Enhanced $69.99 115,056 83% 3.5M $242M (exactly $241,583,083) Pearl Abyss
Monster Hunter Wilds $39.99 200,984 52% 6.0M $241M (exactly $241,120,505) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
ELDEN RING NIGHTREIGN $39.99 129,476 83% 3.9M $155M (exactly $155,332,357) FromSoftware, Inc.
Path of Exile 2 · EA $29.99 167,730 76% 5.0M $151M (exactly $150,906,681) Grinding Gear Games
SCUM $44.99 98,554 74% 3.0M $133M (exactly $133,018,334) Gamepires

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.