Do I ship it?

GamesRPGRPG + Time Travel

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Time-Travel RPG?

RPG + Time Travel

Of 43 developers who shipped a Time-Travel RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 105 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $920k, ×1481 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 105 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 105 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Time Travel
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 43
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $539 → $1.8k → $17k → $27k → $5.1k → $108k → $359 (still earning) → $539 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Time Travel: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 43
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,716)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $56,437)
Top 5% $930k (exactly $929,824)
Developers, 2 yr 43
Released games 165
Announced 105
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Time Travel
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Turn-Based Combat, JRPG
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 23,585 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $920k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 105 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Last Epoch older $34.99 106,364 76% 3.2M $112M (exactly $111,650,291) Eleventh Hour Games
BioShock Infinite older $29.99 109,718 93% 3.3M $99M (exactly $98,713,285) Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (… (Irrational Games, Virtual Programming (Linux))
Digimon Story Time Stranger $69.99 15,845 89% 475k $33M (exactly $33,269,746) Media.Vision Inc.
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
The Forgotten City older $24.99 11,159 96% 335k $8.4M (exactly $8,365,902) Modern Storyteller
CHRONO TRIGGER® older $14.99 12,149 88% 364k $5.5M (exactly $5,463,405) Square Enix
In Stars And Time older $19.99 7,835 97% 235k $4.7M (exactly $4,698,650) insertdisc5
DRAGON QUEST VII Reimagined $59.99 2,138 88% 64k $3.8M (exactly $3,847,759) Square Enix, HEXADRIVE Inc.
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Multiverse Loot Hunter $11.99 2,585 80% 78k $930k (exactly $929,824) 游戏养家工作室
Ascend to ZERO $11.99 867 82% 26k $312k (exactly $311,860) Flyway Games, Inc.
Wanderer: The Fragments of Fate $49.99 149 62% 4.5k $223k (exactly $223,455) Mighty Eyes
Villages & Dungeons $6.99 1,036 91% 31k $217k (exactly $217,249) CaCaFrog Studio
DragonLoop $8.99 567 91% 17k $153k (exactly $152,920) 沙因, 小阮
Amelie falls over and over again ~ An endless week in Magic Academy $13.99 257 80% 7.7k $108k (exactly $107,863) AVANTGARDE
Ship of Heroes $29.99 91 27% 2.7k $82k (exactly $81,873) Heroic Games Corporation
Another Eden Begins $39.99 50 72% 1.5k $60k (exactly $59,985) WRIGHT FLYER STUDIOS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.