Should I ship a Thriller RPG?
RPG + Thriller
Of 161 developers who shipped a Thriller RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 244 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.7k, ×4.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×575 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 244 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $538 (exactly $538) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.7k (exactly $2,696) |
| Top 25% | $24k (exactly $24,325) |
| Top 5% | $361k (exactly $361,019) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 161 |
| Released games | 411 |
| Announced | 244 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Puzzle, Visual Novel
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, First-Person, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 96% positive over 137,933 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 94 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 244 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
MiSide 2024 · $55M 
L.A. Noire 2011 · $19M 
Firework 2021 · $12M 
Unheard - Voices of Crime 2019 · $6.5M 
The Sinking City Remastered 2021 · $6.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | MiSide | $14.99 | 122,007 97% | 3.7M | $55M (exactly $54,866,548) | AIHASTO | |
| | L.A. Noire | older | $19.99 | 31,099 85% | 933k | $19M (exactly $18,650,070) | Team Bondi, Rockstar Leeds |
| | Firework | older | $9.99 | 41,172 97% | 1.2M | $12M (exactly $12,339,248) | Shiying Studio |
| | Unheard - Voices of Crime | older | $6.99 | 30,978 95% | 929k | $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) | NEXT Studios |
| | The Sinking City Remastered | older | $39.99 | 5,361 75% | 161k | $6.4M (exactly $6,431,592) | Frogwares |
 | FATAL FRAME II: Crimson Butterfly REMAKE | $49.99 | 2,663 87% | 80k | $4.0M (exactly $3,993,701) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | The Operator | older | $13.99 | 8,515 91% | 255k | $3.6M (exactly $3,573,746) | Bureau 81 |
 | ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies | $39.99 | 2,911 83% | 87k | $3.5M (exactly $3,492,327) | ZA/UM | |
 | Paper Dolls 2 纸人贰 | older | $19.99 | 2,636 82% | 79k | $1.6M (exactly $1,580,809) | Beijing Litchi Culture Media Co., Ltd. |
 | Five Hearts Under One Roof season2 | $22.99 | 2,149 96% | 64k | $1.5M (exactly $1,482,165) | Storytaco | |
 | SubZero | $9.99 | 2,719 92% | 82k | $815k (exactly $814,884) | Joy Media Limited | |
 | The Scourge | Tai Ương | $19.99 | 1,192 93% | 36k | $715k (exactly $714,842) | Rare Reversee, Beaztek | |
 | Out Of Hands | $17.99 | 1,322 93% | 40k | $713k (exactly $713,483) | Game River | |
 | Incantation | $16.99 | 1,106 73% | 33k | $564k (exactly $563,728) | SOFTSTAR ENTERTAINMENT | |
 | 消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! | $19.99 | 602 89% | 18k | $361k (exactly $361,019) | Humongous Pictures | |
 | Blood Money: Lethal Eden | $8.99 | 1,262 91% | 38k | $340k (exactly $340,361) | 碧火互娱 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.