Should I ship a Viking RPG?
RPG + Vikings
Only 11 developers shipped a Viking RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Viking Frontiers, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×8.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×513 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.3k (exactly $2,307) |
|---|---|
| Median | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) |
| Top 25% | $70k (exactly $69,704) |
| Top 5% | $322k (exactly $322,039) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 11 |
| Released games | 41 |
| Announced | 23 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG
- Price point
- $14.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 62% positive over 1,025 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin's Creed Valhalla 2022 · $74M 
The Banner Saga 2014 · $10M 
Expeditions: Viking 2017 · $3.0M 
Vikings - Wolves of Midgard 2017 · $2.5M 
The Banner Saga 2 2016 · $2.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin's Creed Valhalla | older | $59.99 | 41,083 70% | 1.2M | $74M (exactly $73,937,075) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | The Banner Saga | older | $24.99 | 13,470 88% | 404k | $10M (exactly $10,098,459) | Stoic |
| | Expeditions: Viking | older | $29.99 | 3,293 82% | 99k | $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) | Logic Artists |
| | Vikings - Wolves of Midgard | older | $29.99 | 2,808 58% | 84k | $2.5M (exactly $2,526,358) | Games Farm |
| | The Banner Saga 2 | older | $24.99 | 3,186 89% | 96k | $2.4M (exactly $2,388,544) | Stoic |
 | The Banner Saga 3 | older | $24.99 | 2,647 77% | 79k | $2.0M (exactly $1,984,456) | Stoic |
 | Dead In Vinland | older | $27.80 | 1,175 78% | 35k | $980k (exactly $979,950) | Ishtar Games |
 | Godsworn | · EA older | $29.99 | 805 93% | 24k | $724k (exactly $724,258) | Thunderoak Interactive |
 | Viking: Battle for Asgard | older | $14.99 | 977 58% | 29k | $439k (exactly $439,357) | Creative Assembly, PC Port - Hardlight |
 | King's Bounty: Warriors of the North | older | $9.99 | 1,301 76% | 39k | $390k (exactly $389,910) | Fulqrum Publishing |
 | Viking Frontiers | $19.99 | 537 51% | 16k | $322k (exactly $322,039) | BLUM Entertainment | |
 | Spear Song | · EA | $14.99 | 170 88% | 5.1k | $76k (exactly $76,449) | Divovision Games |
 | Vikings: Sex and Blood | $14.99 | 155 62% | 4.7k | $70k (exactly $69,704) | DreamBig Games | |
 | Vilde | $15.99 | 87 74% | 2.6k | $42k (exactly $41,734) | Chaotic Minds | |
 | Tales Of Glory 4 : Ragnarok | · EA | $29.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $28k (exactly $27,891) | BlackTale Games |
 | Toward The Ice | $14.99 | 12 41% | 360 | $5.4k (exactly $5,396) | Dragon Dropper | |
 | Regnum Idle | $4.99 | 19 63% | 570 | $2.8k (exactly $2,844) | Vexos Games | |
 | Grendel's Cave | $6.99 | 11 100% | 330 | $2.3k (exactly $2,307) | Grendel Enterprises, L.L.C. | |
 | Thor - God of Thunder | · EA | $9.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | Outlaw Games |
 | ViCrew | $4.99 | 2 100% | 60 | $299 (exactly $299) | Matthias Denk |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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