Should I ship a Horse RPG?
RPG + Horses
Of 20 developers who shipped a Horse RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $18k, ×28 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $240M, ×384686 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 44 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.1k (exactly $2,098) |
|---|---|
| Median | $18k (exactly $17,615) |
| Top 25% | $322k (exactly $322,039) |
| Top 5% | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 20 |
| Released games | 71 |
| Announced | 44 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $19.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Exploration, Open World
- Price point
- $19.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cozy, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $19.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 120,416 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 4 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M 
Mount & Blade: Warband 2010 · $81M 
Mount & Blade: With Fire & Sword 2011 · $3.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | Mount & Blade: Warband | older | $19.99 | 135,425 97% | 4.1M | $81M (exactly $81,214,372) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Mount & Blade: With Fire & Sword | older | $9.99 | 11,213 87% | 336k | $3.4M (exactly $3,360,536) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
 | SpellForce: Conquest of Eo | older | $29.99 | 2,149 80% | 64k | $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) | Owned by Gravity |
 | The Ranch of Rivershine | $29.99 | 2,050 94% | 62k | $1.8M (exactly $1,844,385) | Cozy Bee Games | |
 | STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life | older | $39.99 | 1,199 78% | 36k | $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) | Marvelous Inc. |
 | GUN™ | older | $19.99 | 2,102 91% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,260,569) | Neversoft |
 | Calico | older | $11.99 | 3,238 88% | 97k | $1.2M (exactly $1,164,709) | Peachy Keen Games |
 | Equinox: Homecoming | $14.99 | 1,294 80% | 39k | $582k (exactly $581,912) | Blue Scarab Entertainment | |
 | Unbridled: That Horse Game | · EA | $24.99 | 487 85% | 15k | $365k (exactly $365,104) | Mind Evotion Games |
 | Viking Frontiers | $19.99 | 537 51% | 16k | $322k (exactly $322,039) | BLUM Entertainment | |
 | Wild Indigo Ranch | $19.99 | 424 68% | 13k | $254k (exactly $254,273) | Funday Games | |
 | Horse Racing Manager | · EA | $24.99 | 208 88% | 6.2k | $156k (exactly $155,938) | Sheep Meadow Road Games |
 | Golden Chambers | · EA | $19.99 | 195 80% | 5.9k | $117k (exactly $116,941) | Mr. Pink |
 | Tobiano | · EA | $24.99 | 81 79% | 2.4k | $61k (exactly $60,726) | Ida Meyer |
 | Bounty Trail | $6.99 | 84 52% | 2.5k | $18k (exactly $17,615) | September Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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