Should I ship a Train RPG?
RPG + Trains
Only 6 developers shipped a Train RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Voidtrain, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $6.8k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.8M, ×12483 the market median. Momentum is unreadable here, too few recent games; 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
|---|---|
| Median | $6.8k (exactly $6,834) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $10,793) |
| Top 5% | $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 6 |
| Released games | 28 |
| Announced | 18 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 400% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG
- Price point
- $11.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 33,218 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 18 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Monster Train 2020 · $15M 
Voidtrain 2025 · $7.8M 
Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition 2019 · $2.0M 
Kubifaktorium 2021 · $437k 
Metro Sim Hustle 2021 · $105k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Monster Train | older | $24.99 | 19,950 95% | 599k | $15M (exactly $14,956,515) | Shiny Shoe |
| | Voidtrain | $29.99 | 8,713 73% | 261k | $7.8M (exactly $7,839,086) | HypeTrain Digital | |
| | Sunless Skies: Sovereign Edition | older | $24.99 | 2,661 84% | 80k | $2.0M (exactly $1,994,952) | Failbetter Games |
| | Kubifaktorium | older | $19.99 | 728 79% | 22k | $437k (exactly $436,582) | Neomateria Games GmbH |
| | Metro Sim Hustle | older | $9.99 | 352 75% | 11k | $105k (exactly $105,494) | Departure Interactive |
 | Choo Choo Survivor | older | $4.99 | 563 85% | 17k | $84k (exactly $84,281) | GTGD |
 | Re:Turn - One Way Trip | older | $11.99 | 132 79% | 4.0k | $47k (exactly $47,480) | Red Ego Games |
 | Fear Equation | older | $14.99 | 69 73% | 2.1k | $31k (exactly $31,029) | Screwfly Studios |
 | The 18th Floor | older | $14.99 | 26 53% | 780 | $12k (exactly $11,692) | Aoga Games |
 | ExoTrain | · EA | $14.99 | 24 75% | 720 | $11k (exactly $10,793) | Harpoon Games |
 | Station Master RPG | · EA | $11.99 | 19 78% | 570 | $6.8k (exactly $6,834) | Telegraph Studios |
 | Moor Rail | $9.99 | 19 78% | 570 | $5.7k (exactly $5,694) | PLAY Mephistowaltz | |
 | UrbanRail Metro Simulator | · EA | $11.99 | 5 100% | 150 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | UrbanDeveloper |
 | Locostation | $2.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $90 (exactly $90) | Locostation |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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