Games › RPG › RPG + Dark Fantasy
Should I ship a Dark-Fantasy RPG?
RPG + Dark Fantasy
Of 968 developers who shipped a Dark-Fantasy RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,098 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1934 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 2,098 games are announced against 640 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $478 (exactly $478) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,876) |
| Top 25% | $35k (exactly $34,783) |
| Top 5% | $1.2M (exactly $1,214,392) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 968 |
| Released games | 2,484 |
| Announced | 2,098 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- RPG
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Dark Fantasy
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Action RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 558,851 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $480. 7 in 10 of the 422 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,098 games are announced against 640 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
ELDEN RING 2022 · $1.5B 
Baldur's Gate 3 2023 · $1.4B 
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
DARK SOULS™ III 2016 · $500M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | ELDEN RING | older | $59.99 | 831,470 93% | 25M | $1.5B (exactly $1,496,396,559) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
| | Baldur's Gate 3 | older | $59.99 | 755,010 96% | 23M | $1.4B (exactly $1,358,791,497) | Larian Studios |
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | DARK SOULS™ III | older | $59.99 | 278,034 94% | 8.3M | $500M (exactly $500,377,790) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Sekiro™: Shadows Die Twice - GOTY Edition | older | $59.99 | 259,508 95% | 7.8M | $467M (exactly $467,036,548) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 | $49.99 | 181,667 95% | 5.5M | $272M (exactly $272,446,000) | Sandfall Interactive | |
 | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Path of Exile 2 | · EA | $29.99 | 167,730 76% | 5.0M | $151M (exactly $150,906,681) | Grinding Gear Games |
 | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
 | WUCHANG: Fallen Feathers | $49.99 | 44,865 58% | 1.3M | $67M (exactly $67,284,040) | Leenzee | |
 | Metaphor: ReFantazio | $69.99 | 25,224 89% | 757k | $53M (exactly $52,962,833) | ATLUS | |
 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | $44.99 | 33,560 87% | 1.0M | $45M (exactly $45,295,932) | Questline | |
 | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
 | The First Berserker: Khazan | $59.99 | 21,049 85% | 631k | $38M (exactly $37,881,885) | Neople | |
 | FINAL FANTASY XVI | $49.99 | 24,065 78% | 722k | $36M (exactly $36,090,280) | Square Enix | |
 | The Blood of Dawnwalker | $69.99 | 15,789 86% | 474k | $33M (exactly $33,152,163) | Rebel Wolves | |
 | Mortal Shell II | $49.99 | 18,644 79% | 559k | $28M (exactly $27,960,407) | Cold Symmetry |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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