Should I ship a Dinosaur RPG?
RPG + Dinosaurs
Of 30 developers who shipped a Dinosaur RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 46 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2113 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 46 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.2k (exactly $1,199) |
|---|---|
| Median | $7.8k (exactly $7,759) |
| Top 25% | $50k (exactly $50,050) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,969) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 30 |
| Released games | 106 |
| Announced | 46 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 6,264 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 46 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
ARK: Survival Evolved 2017 · $264M 
ARK: Survival Ascended 2023 · EA · $144M 
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition 2020 · $144M 
The Isle 2015 · EA · $67M 
PixARK 2019 · $6.7M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ARK: Survival Evolved | older | $14.99 | 586,768 83% | 18M | $264M (exactly $263,869,570) | Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto… (Studio Wildcard, Instinct Games, Efecto Studios, Virtual Basement LLC) |
| | ARK: Survival Ascended | · EA older | $44.99 | 106,761 60% | 3.2M | $144M (exactly $144,095,322) | Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, In… (Studio Wildcard, Grove Street Games, Instinct Games) |
| | Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 95,804 87% | 2.9M | $144M (exactly $143,677,259) | Guerrilla |
| | The Isle | · EA older | $19.99 | 111,397 80% | 3.3M | $67M (exactly $66,804,781) | Afterthought LLC |
| | PixARK | older | $19.99 | 11,142 73% | 334k | $6.7M (exactly $6,681,857) | Snail Games USA |
 | Beasts of Bermuda | · EA older | $19.99 | 8,430 69% | 253k | $5.1M (exactly $5,055,471) | Sastrei Studios, LLC |
 | Curious Expedition 2 | older | $19.99 | 3,861 88% | 116k | $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) | Maschinen-Mensch |
 | Curious Expedition | older | $14.99 | 3,951 91% | 119k | $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) | Maschinen-Mensch |
 | Dinoblade | $19.99 | 2,420 90% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,451,274) | Team Spino LLC | |
 | Amber Isle | $24.99 | 1,770 82% | 53k | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,969) | Ambertail Games | |
 | Dinotica | $17.99 | 746 86% | 22k | $403k (exactly $402,616) | XA Studio | |
 | Tamer: King of Dinosaurs | · EA | $24.99 | 347 86% | 10k | $260k (exactly $260,146) | Ride the Lion Studios |
 | Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 | $39.99 | 88 82% | 2.6k | $106k (exactly $105,574) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Utawarerumono: ZAN | $39.99 | 85 77% | 2.6k | $102k (exactly $101,974) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | King of Bones | $7.99 | 316 85% | 9.5k | $76k (exactly $75,745) | Gluten Free Games | |
 | Struggle F.O | $8.80 | 243 67% | 7.3k | $64k (exactly $64,152) | Espada Inc. | |
 | Nocan's Quest: Sex Gold Glory | $9.99 | 167 69% | 5.0k | $50k (exactly $50,050) | Kinky Business Group | |
 | DragonRoad | $19.98 | 82 91% | 2.5k | $49k (exactly $49,151) | XuJie |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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