Should I ship a Cyberpunk RPG?
RPG + Cyberpunk
Of 200 developers who shipped a Cyberpunk RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 488 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.3k, ×5.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2112 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 488 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.3k (exactly $3,293) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $32,013) |
| Top 5% | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 200 |
| Released games | 602 |
| Announced | 488 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Roguelite
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 43,413 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 488 games are announced against 104 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Cyberpunk 2077 2020 · $1.6B 
Atomic Heart 2023 · $75M 
RoboCop: Rogue City 2023 · $34M 
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M 
Watch Dogs®: Legion 2023 · $21M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Cyberpunk 2077 | older | $59.99 | 883,400 87% | 27M | $1.6B (exactly $1,589,854,980) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Atomic Heart | older | $59.99 | 41,690 81% | 1.3M | $75M (exactly $75,029,493) | Mundfish |
| | RoboCop: Rogue City | older | $39.99 | 28,196 86% | 846k | $34M (exactly $33,826,741) | Teyon |
| | Deus Ex: Mankind Divided | older | $29.99 | 30,709 77% | 921k | $28M (exactly $27,628,887) | Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac)) |
| | Watch Dogs®: Legion | older | $59.99 | 11,891 56% | 357k | $21M (exactly $21,400,233) | Ubisoft Toronto |
 | Neon Abyss | older | $31.49 | 19,709 86% | 591k | $19M (exactly $18,619,092) | Veewo Games |
 | The Ascent | older | $29.99 | 19,235 74% | 577k | $17M (exactly $17,305,730) | Neon Giant |
 | Transistor | older | $19.99 | 27,993 93% | 840k | $17M (exactly $16,787,402) | Supergiant Games |
 | Digimon Story Cyber Sleuth: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 10,810 89% | 324k | $16M (exactly $16,211,757) | h.a.n.d., Inc., Media.Vision Inc. |
 | Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut | older | $19.99 | 25,392 91% | 762k | $15M (exactly $15,227,582) | Eidos Montreal |
 | Shadows of Doubt | $24.99 | 14,646 82% | 439k | $11M (exactly $10,980,106) | ColePowered Games | |
 | Quasimorph | $24.99 | 7,196 82% | 216k | $5.4M (exactly $5,394,841) | Magnum Scriptum | |
 | RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business | $29.99 | 3,931 84% | 118k | $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) | Teyon | |
 | Cyber Knights: Flashpoint | $29.99 | 2,926 93% | 88k | $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) | Trese Brothers | |
 | Peripeteia | · EA | $24.99 | 3,120 86% | 94k | $2.3M (exactly $2,339,064) | Ninth Exodus |
 | ZEPHON | $39.99 | 1,838 83% | 55k | $2.2M (exactly $2,205,049) | Proxy Studios | |
 | Ostranauts | $19.99 | 3,137 77% | 94k | $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) | Blue Bottle Games | |
 | Citizen Sleeper 2: Starward Vector | $24.99 | 2,358 91% | 71k | $1.8M (exactly $1,767,793) | Jump Over The Age | |
 | System Shock 2: 25th Anniversary Remaster | $29.99 | 1,803 87% | 54k | $1.6M (exactly $1,622,159) | Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studio… (Nightdive Studios, Looking Glass Studios, Irrational Games) | |
 | Rebellion GODSOUL: Awakening | · EA | $17.99 | 2,458 85% | 74k | $1.3M (exactly $1,326,583) | U-Secret Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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