Should I ship a Military RPG?
RPG + Military
Of 90 developers who shipped a Military RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 195 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×4.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4192 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 195 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.9k (exactly $2,936) |
| Top 25% | $34k (exactly $33,612) |
| Top 5% | $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 90 |
| Released games | 344 |
| Announced | 195 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Simulation, Turn-Based Strategy
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 83% positive over 46,224 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 60 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 195 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition 2021 · $112M 
Mount & Blade: Warband 2010 · $81M 
XCOM® 2 2016 · $48M 
Foxhole 2022 · $43M 
Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 2023 · $29M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition | older | $59.99 | 62,205 91% | 1.9M | $112M (exactly $111,950,338) | BioWare |
| | Mount & Blade: Warband | older | $19.99 | 135,425 97% | 4.1M | $81M (exactly $81,214,372) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Foxhole | older | $29.99 | 47,330 79% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $42,582,801) | Siege Camp |
| | Tom Clancy’s The Division® 2 | older | $29.99 | 32,600 79% | 978k | $29M (exactly $29,330,220) | Ubisoft |
 | ROMANCE OF THE THREE KINGDOMS XIV | older | $59.99 | 13,086 62% | 393k | $24M (exactly $23,550,874) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Battle Brothers | older | $29.99 | 26,118 87% | 784k | $23M (exactly $23,498,365) | Overhype Studios |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | Jagged Alliance 3 | older | $44.99 | 10,882 89% | 326k | $15M (exactly $14,687,435) | Haemimont Games |
 | Romance of the Three Kingdoms XIII | older | $59.99 | 5,828 57% | 175k | $10M (exactly $10,488,652) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms | · EA | $19.99 | 6,652 88% | 200k | $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) | Free Wing |
 | PIONER | · EA | $29.99 | 3,205 62% | 96k | $2.9M (exactly $2,883,538) | GFAGAMES |
 | Cyber Knights: Flashpoint | $29.99 | 2,926 93% | 88k | $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) | Trese Brothers | |
 | Three Kingdoms Mushouden | $24.99 | 1,876 72% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) | NanBei Studio | |
 | ZeroSpace | · EA | $39.99 | 1,161 78% | 35k | $1.4M (exactly $1,392,852) | Starlance Studios, Ironward |
 | Metal Slug Tactics | $24.99 | 1,152 76% | 35k | $864k (exactly $863,654) | Leikir Studio | |
 | Conquer the world | $12.99 | 1,996 92% | 60k | $778k (exactly $777,841) | 互动之星 | |
 | Heroes of Science and Fiction | $29.99 | 852 89% | 26k | $767k (exactly $766,544) | Oxymoron Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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