Should I ship a War RPG?
RPG + War
Of 163 developers who shipped a War RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 337 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.3k, ×6.8 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $2.9M, ×4712 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 337 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $719 (exactly $719) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.3k (exactly $4,287) |
| Top 25% | $58k (exactly $58,455) |
| Top 5% | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 163 |
| Released games | 617 |
| Announced | 337 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Strategy RPG, Tactical RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 87,921 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $720. 7 in 10 of the 93 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 337 games are announced against 89 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M 
Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M 
Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ 2017 · $132M 
FOR HONOR™ 2017 · $98M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Total War: WARHAMMER II | older | $59.99 | 85,134 92% | 2.6M | $153M (exactly $153,215,660) | CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
| | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
| | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
 | XCOM® 2 | older | $19.99 | 79,998 84% | 2.4M | $48M (exactly $47,974,801) | Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac),… (Firaxis Games, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux)) |
 | Foxhole | older | $29.99 | 47,330 79% | 1.4M | $43M (exactly $42,582,801) | Siege Camp |
 | DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS | $69.99 | 19,578 92% | 587k | $41M (exactly $41,107,927) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Mad Max | older | $19.99 | 57,651 91% | 1.7M | $35M (exactly $34,573,305) | Avalanche Studios |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Inquisitor - Martyr | older | $49.99 | 19,552 75% | 587k | $29M (exactly $29,322,134) | NeocoreGames |
 | Heroes of Might and Magic: Olden Era | · EA | $39.99 | 19,251 86% | 578k | $23M (exactly $23,095,425) | Unfrozen |
 | MENACE | · EA | $39.99 | 12,281 90% | 368k | $15M (exactly $14,733,516) | Overhype Studios |
 | Xenonauts 2 | $39.99 | 4,853 81% | 146k | $5.8M (exactly $5,822,144) | Goldhawk Interactive | |
 | 龙胤立志传 | $19.99 | 7,153 77% | 215k | $4.3M (exactly $4,289,654) | TPP Studio | |
 | Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms | · EA | $19.99 | 6,652 88% | 200k | $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) | Free Wing |
 | Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars | $49.99 | 2,049 94% | 61k | $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) | KONAMI | |
 | SpaceBourne 2 | $19.99 | 4,951 75% | 149k | $3.0M (exactly $2,969,115) | Burak Dabak | |
 | The Weeping Swan: Ten Days of the City's Fall | $11.99 | 8,227 58% | 247k | $3.0M (exactly $2,959,252) | 零创游戏(ZerocreationGame) | |
 | Cyber Knights: Flashpoint | $29.99 | 2,926 93% | 88k | $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) | Trese Brothers |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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