Should I ship a Medieval RPG?
RPG + Medieval
Of 940 developers who shipped a Medieval RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,867 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.3k, ×3.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1207 the market median. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 1,867 games are announced against 562 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $449 (exactly $449) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.3k (exactly $2,307) |
| Top 25% | $23k (exactly $22,664) |
| Top 5% | $758k (exactly $758,241) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 940 |
| Released games | 2,658 |
| Announced | 1,867 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Strategy
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 412,389 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 469 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,867 games are announced against 562 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition 2015 · $1.2B 
Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord 2022 · $346M 
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M 
Crimson Desert Enhanced 2026 · $242M 
Crusader Kings III 2020 · $142M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt - Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 823,357 96% | 25M | $1.2B (exactly $1,234,788,493) | CD PROJEKT RED |
| | Mount & Blade II: Bannerlord | older | $49.99 | 230,490 87% | 6.9M | $346M (exactly $345,665,853) | TaleWorlds Entertainment |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Crimson Desert Enhanced | $69.99 | 115,056 83% | 3.5M | $242M (exactly $241,583,083) | Pearl Abyss | |
| | Crusader Kings III | older | $49.99 | 94,615 90% | 2.8M | $142M (exactly $141,894,116) | Paradox Development Studio |
 | Middle-earth™: Shadow of War™ | older | $49.99 | 87,777 88% | 2.6M | $132M (exactly $131,639,167) | Monolith Productions |
 | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
 | DARK SOULS™ II: Scholar of the First Sin | older | $39.99 | 83,722 84% | 2.5M | $100M (exactly $100,441,283) | FromSoftware, Inc. |
 | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
 | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
 | The Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion Remastered | $49.99 | 59,690 76% | 1.8M | $90M (exactly $89,517,093) | Bethesda Game Studios, Virtuos | |
 | Gothic 1 Remake | $49.99 | 26,258 88% | 788k | $39M (exactly $39,379,123) | Alkimia Interactive | |
 | Mortal Shell II | $49.99 | 18,644 79% | 559k | $28M (exactly $27,960,407) | Cold Symmetry | |
 | Assassin's Creed Mirage | $49.99 | 11,612 76% | 348k | $17M (exactly $17,414,516) | Ubisoft Bordeaux | |
 | ENDER MAGNOLIA: Bloom in the Mist | $24.99 | 17,143 95% | 514k | $13M (exactly $12,852,107) | Adglobe, Live Wire | |
 | FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles | $49.99 | 5,673 89% | 170k | $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) | Square Enix | |
 | Pax Dei | $29.99 | 7,163 56% | 215k | $6.4M (exactly $6,444,551) | Mainframe Industries | |
 | Sengoku Dynasty | $29.99 | 6,592 74% | 198k | $5.9M (exactly $5,930,822) | Superkami |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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