Should I ship a Music RPG?
RPG + Music
Of 26 developers who shipped a Music RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $17k, ×27 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×5581 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 62 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.0k (exactly $2,985) |
|---|---|
| Median | $17k (exactly $17,243) |
| Top 25% | $292k (exactly $291,633) |
| Top 5% | $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 26 |
| Released games | 101 |
| Announced | 62 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $14.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Rhythm, JRPG, Action
- Price point
- $14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Comedy
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.
The top 10 games average 97% positive over 139,217 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.0k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
Comparable games
Black Myth: Wukong 2024 · $1.6B 
DELTARUNE 2025 · $94M 
Mafia II (Classic) 2011 · $33M 
Bastion 2011 · $13M 
Crypt of the NecroDancer 2015 · $11M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Black Myth: Wukong | older | $59.99 | 881,186 96% | 26M | $1.6B (exactly $1,585,870,444) | Game Science |
| | DELTARUNE | $24.99 | 124,894 98% | 3.7M | $94M (exactly $93,633,032) | tobyfox | |
| | Mafia II (Classic) | older | $29.99 | 36,389 92% | 1.1M | $33M (exactly $32,739,183) | 2K Czech |
| | Bastion | older | $14.99 | 28,223 95% | 847k | $13M (exactly $12,691,883) | Supergiant Games |
| | Crypt of the NecroDancer | older | $14.99 | 23,593 95% | 708k | $11M (exactly $10,609,772) | Brace Yourself Games |
 | Brutal Legend | older | $14.99 | 11,365 94% | 341k | $5.1M (exactly $5,110,840) | Double Fine Productions |
 | Pyre | older | $19.99 | 8,396 90% | 252k | $5.0M (exactly $5,035,081) | Supergiant Games |
 | Rift of the NecroDancer | $19.99 | 5,844 93% | 175k | $3.5M (exactly $3,504,647) | Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios I… (Brace Yourself Games, Tic Toc Studios Inc.) | |
 | Everhood | older | $9.99 | 11,436 95% | 343k | $3.4M (exactly $3,427,369) | Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca |
 | DEEMO -Reborn- | older | $24.99 | 3,188 87% | 96k | $2.4M (exactly $2,390,044) | Rayark International Limited |
 | Ratatan | · EA | $24.99 | 2,449 85% | 73k | $1.8M (exactly $1,836,015) | TVT Co. Ltd., Ratata Arts |
 | Everhood 2 | $19.99 | 2,207 74% | 66k | $1.3M (exactly $1,323,538) | Chris Nordgren, Jordi Roca | |
 | Escape from Ever After | $24.99 | 1,537 96% | 46k | $1.2M (exactly $1,152,289) | Sleepy Castle Studio, Wing-It! Creative | |
 | Fretless - The Wrath of Riffson | $14.99 | 1,399 98% | 42k | $629k (exactly $629,130) | Ritual Studios | |
 | People of Note | $24.99 | 389 89% | 12k | $292k (exactly $291,633) | Iridium Studios | |
 | Keylocker | Turn Based Cyberpunk Action | $19.99 | 225 84% | 6.8k | $135k (exactly $134,932) | Moonana | |
 | K-pop Idol Stories: Road to Debut | $19.99 | 175 53% | 5.3k | $105k (exactly $104,947) | Wisageni Studio | |
 | Steel Century Groove | $19.99 | 98 94% | 2.9k | $59k (exactly $58,771) | Sloth Gloss Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.