Should I ship a Samurai RPG?
RPG + Samurai
Only 14 developers shipped a Samurai RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assassin’s Creed Shadows, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $260k, ×416 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $14k; 1 in 20 cleared $73M, ×116864 the market median. Revenue is down 70% on the market; 14 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $13k (exactly $13,187) |
|---|---|
| Median | $261k (exactly $261,215) |
| Top 25% | $889k (exactly $889,355) |
| Top 5% | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 14 |
| Released games | 31 |
| Announced | 14 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $17.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 70% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- RPG; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Open World
- Price point
- $17.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Violent, Gore
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $17.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 57,050 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $14k. 2 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
Adjacent niches
RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + IdlerFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + SportsFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Split ScreenFair
- + Precision PlatformerFair
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
- + MinigamesPoor odds
- + Real-Time with PausePoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
Comparable games
Kenshi 2018 · $89M 
Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M 
Nioh: Complete Edition 2017 · $44M 
Onimusha: Way of the Sword 2026 · $24M 
Rise of the Ronin 2025 · $9.8M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kenshi | older | $29.99 | 98,451 95% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $88,576,365) | Lo-Fi Games |
| | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
| | Nioh: Complete Edition | older | $49.99 | 29,580 78% | 887k | $44M (exactly $44,361,126) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
| | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Rise of the Ronin | $49.99 | 6,503 64% | 195k | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Utawarerumono: Prelude to the Fallen | older | $59.99 | 1,328 93% | 40k | $2.4M (exactly $2,390,002) | AQUAPLUS |
 | SAMURAI WARRIORS 4-II | older | $49.99 | 1,259 73% | 38k | $1.9M (exactly $1,888,122) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. |
 | Way of the Samurai 4 | older | $24.99 | 1,939 76% | 58k | $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | Bladesong | · EA | $19.99 | 1,483 95% | 44k | $889k (exactly $889,355) | SUN AND SERPENT creations |
 | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Wagotabi: A Japanese Journey | $9.99 | 1,543 98% | 46k | $462k (exactly $462,437) | Wagotabi Limited | |
 | Katanaut | $17.99 | 484 88% | 15k | $261k (exactly $261,215) | Voidmaw | |
 | Expeditions: Samurai | · EA | $29.99 | 267 59% | 8.0k | $240k (exactly $240,220) | Campfire Cabal |
 | Red Masked Ronin: Desires and Shadows | · EA | $12.99 | 205 64% | 6.2k | $80k (exactly $79,888) | Light Hunt Games |
 | Heritage | $9.99 | 44 72% | 1.3k | $13k (exactly $13,187) | Big Three Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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