Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist RPG?

RPG + Capitalism

Of 85 developers who shipped a Capitalist RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 203 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.6k, ×7.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.5M, ×3993 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 203 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 203 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 85
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $2.4k → $807 → $7.7k → $14k → $3.4k → $3.6k (still earning) → $9.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 85
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Median $4.6k (exactly $4,587)
Top 25% $29k (exactly $28,786)
Top 5% $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373)
Developers, 2 yr 85
Released games 220
Announced 203
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 36,316 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.6k, 1 in 4 over $28k, 1 in 20 over $2.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 203 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Fallout 76 2020 · $94M Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator 2022 · $23M The Outer Worlds 2 2025 · $18M Big Ambitions 2026 · $11M Touhou Mystia's Izakaya 2021 · $5.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
小白兔电商~Bunny e-Shop older $10.99 9,176 93% 275k $3.0M (exactly $3,025,327) 落叶岛项目组, 橘子班
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games
Third Crisis: Neon Nights · EA $19.99 1,127 92% 34k $676k (exactly $675,862) Anduo Games
Thank You For Your Application $19.99 953 81% 29k $572k (exactly $571,514) IceLemonTea Studio
Q-UP $9.99 1,126 93% 34k $337k (exactly $337,462) Everybody House Games
Wayblazer Dämmerung $39.99 244 65% 7.3k $293k (exactly $292,727) Eushully

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.